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In reply to the discussion: 3 forecast modelers predict Trump will win in 2020 [View all]DFW
(54,370 posts)14. And this is exactly why......
No one should be confident of ANY outcome at this point. It's all so much hot air. Eighteen months is a glacial age in presidential politics.
This is also why I shun the so-called "primaries" board. To even be allowed to post there, you have to declare a preference (or none) more than half a year before there will even BE a primary. Gimme a break. The water that will flow under the proverbial bridge until then could fill the Indian Ocean.
So these people predict Trump will win. I predict he won't. At this point, I wouldn't even put money on his being the Republican nominee. Gimme half an hour, I'll make up some mumbo-jumbo to justify my claim, too.
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That was pre-Nixon impeachment. Wasn't economy pretty decent after re-election & before impeachment?
uponit7771
May 2019
#38
nope, it started to go to shit in 1973 (Oil Crisis, Nixon Shock etc, and stagflation ensued)
Celerity
May 2019
#40
Yes it was, Nixon and Red Don have close avg UE rates (link) and Red Don's JA averages are horrible
uponit7771
May 2019
#42
they do not have that close of UE rates, especially in the last 19 months of Nixon versus the last
Celerity
May 2019
#53
All I can say is if Trump wins who could possibly be proud to call themselves American?
walkingman
May 2019
#8
I'm not proud to call myself American now. In fact, I desperately want to leave
OliverQ
May 2019
#16
I bailed on Texas after forty years...been in Nevada for almost twenty years now
pecosbob
May 2019
#60
IF we win WI, MI, and PA this map right below is literally the only way Rump can win outright
Celerity
May 2019
#59
Chicago FiB here + I would not count on Wisconsin going blue . Milwaukee and MadIson had
lunasun
May 2019
#63
These models are flawed - just look at Trump's approval for proof of this.
Drunken Irishman
May 2019
#25
Obama had 50% on election day but not in mid 2011 which is where we are at in the cycle.
former9thward
May 2019
#32
Not the same. President Obama is a true President. Most Americans already see Trump for what he is
rockfordfile
May 2019
#69
+1, Also ... Nixon's avg UE rate was only .2 higher than Red Don's avg (link). Not that the UE rate
uponit7771
May 2019
#41
that link has data only up until the end of 2016, how does it have a UE number for Trump?
Celerity
May 2019
#44
Red Don's numbers are even worse then seeing Nixon's was at one time in the high 60s ...
uponit7771
May 2019
#45
And yet, despite the great economy ever (hah!) 55% say they plan to vote against Trump.
pnwmom
May 2019
#28
Every day we see the people at the top distorting the work of the career people. I don't trust
pnwmom
May 2019
#34
That is a laughable question considering what we are seeing in the Justice Department
pnwmom
May 2019
#48
And you believe that a whistleblower is going to risk prison to tell the truth about statistics.
pnwmom
May 2019
#58
Don't pretend to know the future: it always somehow depends on what we do
struggle4progress
May 2019
#50
I tend to believe the election results from Nov. 2018...which two years had gone by after...
SWBTATTReg
May 2019
#54
Most of the elections held since 2018 have shown dramatic increase in Dem turnout
pecosbob
May 2019
#61