Why the Skittish Caucus is so Skittish About Impeachment.

[Gothmog]

127. In the real world, you need 20 GOP Senators to vote to remove

That is not going to happen. In the real world, you can try trump and only need 12 carefully selected to convict based on evidence presented. Manafort was convicted with at least one serious trump supporter on the jury based on the evidence. These are two completely different standards.

As for a lack of a crystal ball, the polling is clear here

Link to tweet

Article of Impeachment are a stunt. Right now the polling shows only 27% favor an impeachment inquiry which is a far cry from actual article of impeachment. That number is up 10% percent from the prior polling which is some movement. 27% is not sufficient to win a congressional seat. Many moderate democrats are worried and for good reason. Right now it is my understanding that only 60+ house democrats favor an impeachment inquiry and that is not close to half of the caucus.

Moderate democrats have reason to worry

Link to tweet

Rep. Collin Peterson (D-MN) will entertain the idea of impeaching President Trump when he’s sure enough votes exist in the GOP-controlled Senate to convict him. Which is to say, not anytime soon.

“We’re not anywhere close,” Peterson told The Daily Beast as he exited the House floor on Tuesday. He’s been pressing his colleagues in the House Democratic caucus to recognize that this simple fact should put impeachment fever to bed, for now. But he says he hasn’t had much luck.....

But political concerns clearly are a factor for Democratic moderates and the leadership that is closely following their re-election prospects. Pelosi, for starters, has fed the idea that Trump would welcome impeachment because it would fire up his base heading into the 2020 election. Impeachment proponents scoff at that argument, stressing that historical data isn’t conclusive that the public rallies to the president under fire. But polling data tends to show that the country right now isn’t enamored with the idea. A new survey from a Michigan-based pollster found in that key swing state, over 41 percent of voters strongly oppose impeachment, while 27 percent strongly supported.

The two seats that we flipped in Texas would likely be lost if we file articles of impeachment and trump is vindicated by a GOP controlled Senate.

I want to pick up additional house seats this term and not lose seats. Lizzie and Collin are both good people and it would be a shame to lose these House members. I have been on the phone with both of them (dialing for dollar calls) and they are class people. Collin was with Marc Elias' firm and was involved in the 2016 voter protection efforts.

I support Nancy Pelosi's position here. I also support calling witnesses to testify bout the Mueller report and seeing if we can get the polling to shift on the percentage of Americans who support an impeachment inquiry (which is a far cry from Article of Impeachment).