Tensions flare over Pelosi's comments about four House Democratic women and border bill

[Celerity]

78. a fairly complete rundown of possible R to D Senate flips

Last edited Mon Jul 8, 2019, 01:52 PM - Edit history (1)

It is 53-47 Rethug now

I will go ahead and posit that Paedo Moore may well win in the Rethug primaries, so I will give us a hold with Jones, especially if Biden has coattails and if he picks a VP like Abrams, who will energise th A-A voters in GA, AL (tough pull for POTUS but the Senate not so much if Moore is the opponent), NC, SC (tough pull), FL, TX (same dynamics as AL, probably a bridge too far, but Abrams might help in the Senate race, but less hopeful there) and VA (and obviously nationwide)

So we would then need to flip FOUR seats to take it cleanly back. There are 10 targets (Rethug held or open and were Rethug) Even if Paedo fails, and a 'normal' RWNJ Repuke beats Jones, we still just need to flip 5, and there are DEFFO 5 that are flippable, in fact I see 8 or 9.

We are not in any danger of losing any other seats (Jeanne Shaheen in NH would be the only one that isn't a pure lock, but she should coast to victory).

All the following are vulnerable Rethugs (10, unless you, like me, see little hope for TX)

MT Steve Daines (Bullock would beat him and he needs to give up on POTUS and get in the race for Senate) No Bullock makes it very hard unfortunately.

AZ Martha McSally Mark Kelly has a great shot at beating her

CO Cory Gardner, even if Hickenlooper refuses to run, we still have good candidates, Gardner should go down hard. This is the surest flip of all.

GA David Perdue (Stacey Abrams really should go for this seat (if she is not the VP for someone) she would be our strongest, but we have a couple others who could knock out Perdue, he is vulnerable.

IA Joni Ernst Cindy Axne was another big refusal, she would have probably beaten Ernst, who has shit approval ratings, but we have many other good candidates, although Tom Vilsack has also declined to run. Hopefully Axne or Vilsack changes their mind, or we find another great candidate, Ernst is really vulnerable, and Trump is becoming hated due to the trade war smashing the farmers.

KY Mitch McConnell His approval rating is for shit, hopefully we can find a person to give this fucker a real run, there are 3 or 4 good candidates, including Andy Beshear, Amy McGrath (the fighter pilot), and a true wildcard who may run, Ashley Judd. Judd could do it, I so hope she gets in, but the others have a shot too, as McConnell is going to be hated almost as much as Trump by November 2020.

ME Susan Collins Yet another BIG name refused to run against her (Susan Rice), but there are multiple other good candidates, especially the just-announced Sara Gideon, the current Maine Speaker of the House. Collins is finally dropping hard in the polls.

NC Thom Tillis this one we should win IF (and same old story, 2 big names refused to run already, Anthony Foxx (BHO's Sec of Trans and Josh Stein, NC AG) we get in a great candidate. Tillis's popularity is in the toilet, he is very vulnerable, and a weak campaigner. REALLY disappointed that Foxx turned it down. He is so popular (ex Charlotte mayor and Obama's Sec of Transportation)

TN Lamar Alexander (retiring) open seat, but still we will need a great candidate (and not some old conservadem like 2018, where Phil Bredesen was a really bad candidate, Marsha Blackburn was a RWNJ who ran a shit campaign, but Bredesen was even worse and got smashed, even though it was a Blue tide election). I so hope Tim McGraw (yes, the singer, lol) changes his mind and runs.

TX John Cornyn (the hardest of all, I do not think even Beto or Castro could beat him, as he is much more popular than Cruz, but still, maybe Beto jumps in, but I doubt it, as a big loss would end his career to a great extent) and we do have a great candidate in MJ Hegar. I unfortunately am not optimistic here, but who knows. Go MJ!



IF Paedo Moore wins the Rethug Alabama primary (and IF we get some of those big names to reconsider (or get great replacements)..... then there are easily 4 or 5 or 6 that can go our way, especially if Rump loses in a landslide.