Whenever you see policy polling from Florida or Michigan or wherever, and

[cthulu2016]

4. I am referring to things like Romney polling well on medicare in Florida

When you see a poll like that, it tells you that Romney is running a lot of anti-Obama ads about medicare in Florida.

There is not real-world event that could be moving that attitude there... the news coverage would, if anything, have the opposite effect.

Meanwhile, some other state is getting the welfare ads 24/7. (I would guess you are, in Ohio)

I live in a blue part of a swing state, and I have never seen one of the welfare ads except on the internet. I see tons of the "I voted for Oama and he's a nice guy, but it's time for a change."