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cynatnite

(31,011 posts) Sat Sep 1, 2012, 10:18 PM Sep 2012

Check out these numbers from Nate Silver's blog... [View all]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

During the last election I read this religiously. His forecasts were right on for the most part. I heard he was off on Indiana in 2008.

As of tonight here are the forecast numbers if the election were held today...

Electoral votes...

Barack Obama
305.5

Mitt Rmoney
232.5

Chance of winning...

Barack Obama
73.1%

Mitt Rmoney
26.9%

Popular vote...

Barack Obama
50.9%

Mitt Rmoney
47.9%

The numbers look good for President Obama and it would be easy to be cocky, but I'm still careful. Inwardly, I still feel like it's easy to lose this whole thing. These numbers are encouraging and give me hope. That's as far as I'm willing to go.

35 replies

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Check out these numbers from Nate Silver's blog... [View all] cynatnite Sep 2012 OP

I am worried about how these new Voter ID rules in the swing states Lex Sep 2012 #1

He talked about them at length in a previous entry of his... cynatnite Sep 2012 #2

I'll go over and check out his other entries at Lex Sep 2012 #5

I found it... cynatnite Sep 2012 #9

The one in Ohio was over turned via a judge finding WCGreen Sep 2012 #21

Unfortunately it will be appealed druidity33 Sep 2012 #33

It's a federal court, from what I understand. WCGreen Sep 2012 #34

You're right... druidity33 Sep 2012 #35

After that Republican lie fest last week, the word from the DNC needs to be, brewens Sep 2012 #3

It won't matter to the Rethigs they will either take something out of context or doc03 Sep 2012 #7

YOu can do instant responses on that kind of thing; Jackpine Radical Sep 2012 #10

My concern remains the voting access restrictions that the Repukes are attempting jimlup Sep 2012 #4

Here's what he said... cynatnite Sep 2012 #8

Things have generally changed for the better too ProudToBeBlueInRhody Sep 2012 #12

Wow, that was well worth reading. Great analysis of the effect of voter ID laws. bleever Sep 2012 #13

I am a huge fan of his blog. n/t cynatnite Sep 2012 #14

Let's not overlook those Diebold voting machines. xtraxritical Sep 2012 #17

A few percent here, a few percent there, bleever Sep 2012 #20

Also need the right number of machines. ReasonableToo Sep 2012 #26

And when he does - he will have a MANDATE - dangit. jillan Sep 2012 #6

He's considered cautious as well ProudToBeBlueInRhody Sep 2012 #11

Just remember what Mad-Eye Moody always told Harry Potter: calimary Sep 2012 #15

Much older: 1852, Boston speech by Wendell Phillips Bernardo de La Paz Sep 2012 #24

Aha! Even Better!!! calimary Sep 2012 #29

not enough ... Bernardo de La Paz Sep 2012 #31

Obama's going to get a bounce from his convention that Romney never could've renate Sep 2012 #16

is the Presidency the only thing that matters? hfojvt Sep 2012 #18

Ring the bell ! Ding Ding Ding !!!!!! jaysunb Sep 2012 #19

That is true. AverageJoe90 Sep 2012 #23

YES. Hopefully the Dems (and other good guys) who come out for Obama calimary Sep 2012 #30

Yes. Need the Senate for Supreme Court nominations. Need House for almost everything else. nt Bernardo de La Paz Sep 2012 #25

THE SUPREME COURT. Lex Sep 2012 #27

We very well could, if we stop now! AverageJoe90 Sep 2012 #22

Nate Silver to me used to be the voice of doom. I like this one. librechik Sep 2012 #28

This is great, BUT: Raine1967 Sep 2012 #32