If you believe that Obama will win handily, you haven't been paying attention

[Iggy]

34. Correct, I've Seen This Movie Before

All the self-congratulatory stuff around here about how the RNC was a disaster and the President
is headed for an easy victory, and the polls are manufactured and it's not really close, makes me really nervous.

Back in 1999-2000, when some of you were getting the crust cut off your peanut butter and jelly sammys by your
mom-- I was over at the public forum at Salon.com. the term "blog" hadn't even been invented.

There, numerous progressives were laughing and guffawing about "that nobody hick governor from Texas", and how
"Al Gore will win in a landslide victory".

Well? what happened?

what happened is Al Gore and the democratic party made several stupid mistakes.

One being they didn't let Clinton campaign for/with Gore-- which would have helped considerably in a crucial
swing state like Ohio-- which Gore lost.

Looking at what happened in 2008, Obama won Ohio-- by something like 107,000 votes; that's hardly a large
margin. in fact, IMHO, it's a meaningless margin, because part of the context is there obviously were plenty
of people willing to vote for Stumpy McCain-- in spite of the fact GOP "genius" gw bush drove us over
the cliff economically. keep this in mind when thinking about Ohio.

we already know the youth vote is not going to turn out this time for Obama.

for me, this race is too close to call.. I pay attention to little if any polling.. 538 is about it for me. if the GOP had been
smart enough to run someone like Jeb Bush-- they would be guaranteed a win. instead, they're running a
guy who is even worse than bush.

it's all about who shows up in 6-8 states; obv Ohio is one of those states.