General Discussion

Samantha

(9,314 posts) Tue Sep 4, 2012, 01:08 AM Sep 2012

Nate Silver has Florida light blue today with a 59.2% Obama win prediction for November 6! UPDATED [View all]

Last edited Wed Sep 5, 2012, 05:26 PM - Edit history (1)

Check out the site here, then point to Florida on the map:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

Michigan: 93.0 percent chance of Obama win November 6

Virginia: 69.8 percent chance of Obama win November 6

Colorado: 69.0 percent chance of Obama win November 6

Ohio: 71.5 percent chance Obama

PA: 91.2 percent chance Obama

Electoral College prediction: 308.2 (Obama) 229.8 Romney

Massachusetts: 99.2 percent chance of Obama win (yes, I know this is not a swing state, but Romney was such a swell governor there)

Wisconsin: 77.3 percent chance of Obama win (Message from Wisconsin voters to rest of nation: to know Ryan is to not vote for him)

Geez, if this election becomes any closer, I just won't be able to take it!

Sam

51 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Nate Silver has Florida light blue today with a 59.2% Obama win prediction for November 6! UPDATED [View all] Samantha Sep 2012 OP

It's a definite pony race! nc4bo Sep 2012 #1

They DO. elleng Sep 2012 #3

+1000 NotThisTime Sep 2012 #9

GREAT! elleng Sep 2012 #2

Very, very true Samantha Sep 2012 #4

VERY scary, those 2 governors and legislatures. elleng Sep 2012 #5

Power failures at polling stations..... Cali_Democrat Sep 2012 #8

Whenever I read "oh my god we're gonna lose" I got to Nate's site and calm down. Hamlette Sep 2012 #6

I'll do my part to keep it that way OriginalGeek Sep 2012 #7

I like Nate Silver's numbers davidpdx Sep 2012 #10

What would be wonderful would be if Ryan lost both his VP bid AND his house seat Samantha Sep 2012 #11

That might be a bit to wish for in one election davidpdx Sep 2012 #28

Maybe it is, but I am going to keep on wishing, and hoping and thinking Samantha Sep 2012 #30

The best thing him about losing both races is it would pretty much finish his political career davidpdx Sep 2012 #41

It is one of the things truly delicious to think about during this horrendous election season Samantha Sep 2012 #42

When I think of Wisconsin going back to blue Greybnk48 Sep 2012 #12

Thank you so much for posting your gut feelings here -- we all wish the best for Wisconsin Samantha Sep 2012 #13

Thank you, Samantha! n/t Greybnk48 Sep 2012 #16

I would LOVE to see Ryan lose his house seat. tjdee Sep 2012 #19

I need to figure out how to check how that race is going Samantha Sep 2012 #23

Hey, I just re-read it for the third time Samantha Sep 2012 #32

Ohio Gets Deeper Blue Every Time I Visit That Site ChoppinBroccoli Sep 2012 #14

I read some time ago Romney supports a NATIONAL right to work law Samantha Sep 2012 #24

Actually abumbyanyothername Sep 2012 #31

I am going to very politely disagree with you and here is why Samantha Sep 2012 #35

Well . . . abumbyanyothername Sep 2012 #38

It never ceases to amaze me that Cali is 99.9% certain to go for Obama. reformist2 Sep 2012 #15

Vermont and NY are both 100% Samantha Sep 2012 #27

Hope it holds! BumRushDaShow Sep 2012 #17

Isn't Romney really fighting an uphill battle? tjdee Sep 2012 #18

I Don't Think The Media Said 08 Was A Squeaker DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2012 #20

I dunno--for me, I feel way more comfortable when I think about the ec vote in 2008. tjdee Sep 2012 #21

I Really Think The Media Is TRYING To Keep It Close ChoppinBroccoli Sep 2012 #22

Agreed. The media is calling this closer than it actually is. IL Lib Sep 2012 #25

They have to. It would hurt their bottom line if they reported accurately. joshcryer Sep 2012 #26

rMoney's path to victory abumbyanyothername Sep 2012 #33

Explain why the media wants repukes to vote? What do you Laura PourMeADrink Sep 2012 #37

Why Does The Media Want RWers To Vote? ChoppinBroccoli Sep 2012 #39

Yo! Samantha! DonRedwood Sep 2012 #29

Yo, DonRedwood! Samantha Sep 2012 #36

like "swell governor"....Is "swell" coming back to cool? Laura PourMeADrink Sep 2012 #34

And he has Florida up to 62.2% now.... Rowdyboy Sep 2012 #40

Hey, Rowdyboy, thanks for that info -- I went back to look for changes since I posted this Samantha Sep 2012 #43

I've really gotten hooked on checking his site several times a day.... Rowdyboy Sep 2012 #45

That is what I was thinking Samantha Sep 2012 #46

He's made yet another slight adjustment that you'll enjoy... Rowdyboy Sep 2012 #48

311.2 Electoral College? I noticed President Obama has gained 10.8 percent since August 29 Samantha Sep 2012 #49

He's upgraded Florida to 62.6% now.... Rowdyboy Sep 2012 #50

Right! This morning is was 59.2 -- that is a 3.4 increase within the day Samantha Sep 2012 #51

Mittens and Rick Scott --- Two peas from the same pod. lpbk2713 Sep 2012 #44

I think you are right -- I have a Republican friend in Florida who just can't stand Scott Samantha Sep 2012 #47