Nate Silver has Florida light blue today with a 59.2% Obama win prediction for November 6! UPDATED

[ChoppinBroccoli]

22. I Really Think The Media Is TRYING To Keep It Close

Or at least make people THINK it's still close. Back in '96 (which is the election I've been comparing this one to for months), everyone pretty much conceded that Dole was going to get his clock cleaned. I think the media is artificially propping up Rmoney for a couple of reasons. First, so they will still have things to report for the next few months (i.e. ratings), and second, to make sure that right-wingers still show up to vote (because if they know it's going to be a blowout, why bother?) I think they also want to make sure that the Republicans continue to hand over the billions of dollars they've got saved up in their advertising accounts (again, because if they have no chance, why spend the money on advertising?)

As I've said before, I don't think Rmoney has any hope at all of winning without taking Ohio, and Ohio is slowly but surely slipping away from him. He also has to flip a whole lot of other battleground States where he's trailing and fading as well. After riding the "naming the running mate" bounce and the convention bounce, Rmoney's current numbers are as high as they're ever going to be, and he STILL trails in almost all the battleground States. His numbers will do nothing but drop from here on out. Obama will get a convention bounce that will dwarf Rmoney's, eliminating whatever surge he got in the last few weeks, and then when Obama makes a babbling fool out of Rmoney in the debates, it will all be over but the right-wing whining.