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Aquaria

(1,076 posts)
20. The polls did not lie
Sun Dec 22, 2019, 06:04 AM
Dec 2019

The failure with the polls was not in the polling for the reputable pollsters, but with the media and public's ignorance of how polls work. Polls are nothing more than statistics, and statistics follows specific mathematical formulae.

In the case of the 2016 election, the key thing to know from stats is this: Hillary rarely polled outside the margin of error. The margin of error says that a poll could swing +/- a given value based on the number of people polled, with a 95% confidence interval (meaning that the poll is 95% accurate, which is extremely good in polling). The MOE is a precise number, based on a specific formula. Without getting into the math involved, it simply means that a poll has a range of results possible, and not a 100% certain value. No reputable pollster will ever claim this.

Anyway, this is how MOE works: If the margin of error for a particular poll is 3 percent, and Hillary was polling 52% while the treasonous scumbag was at 48%, then that means that Hillary's actual range of values for people voting for her was 49% at the low end and 55% at the high end. Meanwhile the treasonous scumbag's actual range of values could have fallen anywhere between 45% to 51%.

I think you can see the problem here, if the above ranges of values for the candidates applied for a poll in, say, Michigan. Let's speculate that the voting results, which do NOT have a margin of error, actually showed that 50.1% of the tally went for the treasonous scumbag, but only 49.9% for Hillary. Guess what? That would have been perfectly within the margin of error for that exit poll. Meaning the poll was right, NOT wrong. Because margin of error.

Every reputable poll lists the margin of error, among other factors of methodology. Most legitimate media outlets post the MOE somewhere close to the results of the poll, but if they don't, it's easy to find by going to the actual poll and looking for a methodology report. ALL reputable pollsters provide this data.

So when you see the margin of error from now on, automatically add or subtract that number from the stated result, to get an idea of the swing that the actual vote could go. If your candidate is above 50% at the low end of the margin of error, then it's highly likely that said candidate will win. If the lower end of the range dips below 50%, though, then you need to brace yourself for the chance of a loss. Because the possibility is there.

And that MOE works for any kind of poll, not just voting polls. Approval ratings, Nielsen ratings, stats about where people stand on issues--the MOE works the same for those as they do election polls.

An intro course in statistics should be required in every high school, or at least every college degree plan. If people understood the basics of stats, they would realize how silly they sound when they say polls are wrong. Because stats done properly are not wrong all that often.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

I have believed it from day 1. onecaliberal Dec 2019 #1
Me too. maryallen Dec 2019 #8
Yeppers. catrose Dec 2019 #28
I'm with you. llmart Dec 2019 #64
I wonder if we'll ever know for sure? n/t napi21 Dec 2019 #2
I have long suspected that the meeting Feinstein and Grassley emerged from looking visibly onecaliberal Dec 2019 #11
I also have had a strong feelin that they have Zoonart Dec 2019 #29
"They will only say they cannot confirm that fact." - false. TwilightZone Dec 2019 #3
Yes, it certainly doesn't exhibit credibility when "countable" states falsehoods in their story. PSPS Dec 2019 #9
If the hackers did not change election results Turbineguy Dec 2019 #4
I am pretty confident they did. Lexee Dec 2019 #5
Not really --Each side knows only one side karynnj Dec 2019 #36
I'm remembering the story of Diebold, who manufactures voting machines, regularly CaptYossarian Dec 2019 #6
I have also been convinced of it since day 1, pnwest Dec 2019 #7
I have, too. CozyMystery Dec 2019 #19
The polls did not lie Aquaria Dec 2019 #20
After Bush vs. Gore and then Kerry they said people were not admitting to voting for Bush. Also Pepsidog Dec 2019 #42
Thank you for explaining that. nt CozyMystery Dec 2019 #71
It also happened in 2004 ... aggiesal Dec 2019 #25
Why electronic voting is a bad idea... ret5hd Dec 2019 #26
It did. Remember Ohio, 2004 DFW Dec 2019 #30
I sure remember that - and this article by Greg Palast: Kerry Won. Here Are the Facts Rhiannon12866 Dec 2019 #40
Don't forget 2012 when Karl Rove was smugly declaring that Ohio would go to Romney dflprincess Dec 2019 #45
Non auditable paperless electronic voting machines..?? aeromanKC Dec 2019 #10
Wayne County Michigan Had Like 70,000 Undervotes DallasNE Dec 2019 #12
Where do you get 70,000 undervotes ? MichMan Dec 2019 #31
Don't Have The Old Data At Hand DallasNE Dec 2019 #49
You said 70,000 were on one county alone MichMan Dec 2019 #50
Here You Go DallasNE Dec 2019 #56
Detroit is in Wayne County MichMan Dec 2019 #60
I Don't Know Michigan Law DallasNE Dec 2019 #65
In Michigan it is a three person commission composed of three elected officials MichMan Dec 2019 #67
Thank you for your genuine arguments. No matter what there will be persistent naysayers. triron Dec 2019 #68
Of course the votes were switched Botany Dec 2019 #13
I predict the naysayers are coming soon. triron Dec 2019 #32
a lot of them are troll bots .... Botany Dec 2019 #35
Not by the exit polls -- she was winning in polls before the election karynnj Dec 2019 #37
more of the same stopdiggin Dec 2019 #14
Follow Greg Palast LittleGirl Dec 2019 #15
The Russians did not need to alter votes because the GOP already had done it. Ford_Prefect Dec 2019 #16
that's the trouble with electrons -- people can't see 'em ... Hermit-The-Prog Dec 2019 #17
The elections were stolen malaise Dec 2019 #18
LOL! Nahhhhh. The Russians infiltrated multiple states' voting systems, but all they Squinch Dec 2019 #21
That's the conclusion I came to. nt Ilsa Dec 2019 #62
Article is from July, 2018. The Root updated it a few days later: sl8 Dec 2019 #22
They were threatened. triron Dec 2019 #33
What evidence is there for that? n/t sl8 Dec 2019 #38
Gatekeepers not liking this story. Kingofalldems Dec 2019 #23
This is precisely why I fear another Trump Victory sellitman Dec 2019 #24
There was vote alterations in many of the states, counties, districts Iliyah Dec 2019 #27
I believe they did hack voter counts in 2016. So why the cover-up? YOHABLO Dec 2019 #34
Proabably one of those "for the good of the country" cover ups. dflprincess Dec 2019 #47
We need to understand that Russians are the best coders in the world FakeNoose Dec 2019 #39
I never understood why the press and Democrats were so Laura PourMeADrink Dec 2019 #41
Don't you think they won't concede ther might be a problem with vote tampering because they may napi21 Dec 2019 #43
I guess. But anyone with half a brain should be able to Laura PourMeADrink Dec 2019 #46
I suspect this is why Trump and his Little Eichmanns are fearless about 2020. n/t TheFourthMind Dec 2019 #44
Exactly. All preordained. And trump has a mighty Laura PourMeADrink Dec 2019 #48
I suspect any Russian hack was in place before 2016. Just needed the right candidate. TheFourthMind Dec 2019 #54
You bet! triron Dec 2019 #57
"Few wil admit it" brooklynite Dec 2019 #51
Wondering JT45242 Dec 2019 #52
I think this is what Trump and Stone know Baked Potato Dec 2019 #53
Was there always a third party candidate that seemed to get way more votes than expected rainy Dec 2019 #55
She is definitely a candidate. triron Dec 2019 #58
Article tries (with little success) to conflate supposition with established proof stopdiggin Dec 2019 #59
The GOP's been doing it since Bush - so it stands to reason they'd let Russians (& Isrealis) in too sandensea Dec 2019 #61
This has been known for years. It's really not news. Joe941 Dec 2019 #63
knr triron Dec 2019 #66
kick for visibility triron Dec 2019 #69
kick for visibility triron Dec 2019 #70
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