General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Strong circumstantial evidence says vote totals were altered in 2016 (but few will admit it). [View all]Aquaria
(1,076 posts)The failure with the polls was not in the polling for the reputable pollsters, but with the media and public's ignorance of how polls work. Polls are nothing more than statistics, and statistics follows specific mathematical formulae.
In the case of the 2016 election, the key thing to know from stats is this: Hillary rarely polled outside the margin of error. The margin of error says that a poll could swing +/- a given value based on the number of people polled, with a 95% confidence interval (meaning that the poll is 95% accurate, which is extremely good in polling). The MOE is a precise number, based on a specific formula. Without getting into the math involved, it simply means that a poll has a range of results possible, and not a 100% certain value. No reputable pollster will ever claim this.
Anyway, this is how MOE works: If the margin of error for a particular poll is 3 percent, and Hillary was polling 52% while the treasonous scumbag was at 48%, then that means that Hillary's actual range of values for people voting for her was 49% at the low end and 55% at the high end. Meanwhile the treasonous scumbag's actual range of values could have fallen anywhere between 45% to 51%.
I think you can see the problem here, if the above ranges of values for the candidates applied for a poll in, say, Michigan. Let's speculate that the voting results, which do NOT have a margin of error, actually showed that 50.1% of the tally went for the treasonous scumbag, but only 49.9% for Hillary. Guess what? That would have been perfectly within the margin of error for that exit poll. Meaning the poll was right, NOT wrong. Because margin of error.
Every reputable poll lists the margin of error, among other factors of methodology. Most legitimate media outlets post the MOE somewhere close to the results of the poll, but if they don't, it's easy to find by going to the actual poll and looking for a methodology report. ALL reputable pollsters provide this data.
So when you see the margin of error from now on, automatically add or subtract that number from the stated result, to get an idea of the swing that the actual vote could go. If your candidate is above 50% at the low end of the margin of error, then it's highly likely that said candidate will win. If the lower end of the range dips below 50%, though, then you need to brace yourself for the chance of a loss. Because the possibility is there.
And that MOE works for any kind of poll, not just voting polls. Approval ratings, Nielsen ratings, stats about where people stand on issues--the MOE works the same for those as they do election polls.
An intro course in statistics should be required in every high school, or at least every college degree plan. If people understood the basics of stats, they would realize how silly they sound when they say polls are wrong. Because stats done properly are not wrong all that often.