3 New Suspected Cases in Virginia

[Ms. Toad]

25. So - using the 5 confirmed cases in the US

Not the considerably larger number of suspected cases, and a forumula that minimizes the number of infected (by assuming no one new gets infected for a full 14 days after exposure) and dead (a rate of 2.77% - based on currently dead v. confirmed diagnosis): By April we'll have 1545 infected and 43 dead. By July 477,145 infected and 13,217 dead.

It's an exponential process - and because it is predicted to be deady at a rate of 20 times that of the flu, and infectious at a rate of about double that of the flu - it could get really ugly.

Especially if, instead of the 5 cases we know about there are 50 (probably not an unreasonable estimate.) That moves up the timeline considerably. You hit a million by may 17, and by July that would be 4.8 million, not 477 thousand, with more than 130,000 dead.

And maybe we evacuate the 1000 US citizens from the most infected spot in the world and turn them loose in the US (rather than imposting a 14 day quarantine)

It's not time for full blown panic - but it's not time to stick your head in the sand. By the time we hit really big numbers, it will be nicer weather. Windows will be open, people will be out side. I would expect this to decline (or at least not grow so rapidly) - since that is what typically happens to contagious respiratory illnesses.

But do the math and see what the actual truth is. Using the same conservative estimates adn the confirmed 2062 infections in China, you hit 1.5 million infected by 5/3 - with 46,000 dead.

The lowest infection rate I've seen is 2.6, the longest incubation period 14 days, and the death rate I used was based on #dead today/#confirmed cases today.