General Discussion

Ms. Toad

(38,730 posts)

32. My estimates (in a post above)

Sun Jan 26, 2020, 07:11 PM

Jan 2020

were based on a 14 day incubation period. I don't even want to think about a 5-day period.

But - based on a 5 day incubation period, assuming 50 current cases (there are more than 60 suspected) - we pass 1 million infected by mid-march, with 51,000 dead. (Assuming the lowest tramsission, the lowest death rate, and no infections that take fewer than 5 days)

Current (lowest) estimates are that each person gives it to 2.6 persons. Death rate (based on # of deaths / # confirmed cases is 2.77 - it actually is much higher at this point since some of the cases were JUST diagnosed and may yet die - the death rate of the first 40-ish cases was 15%)

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3 New Suspected Cases in Virginia [View all] nocoincidences Jan 2020 OP

no disrespect intended stopdiggin Jan 2020 #1

I appreciate the news. Coventina Jan 2020 #2

Well Trump said it was under control so I appreciate the reports. Kingofalldems Jan 2020 #3

You might feel differently if you lived in Virginia. Nt The_jackalope Jan 2020 #7

I appreciate the reports. When there's anything new on Singapore, let me know. Croney Jan 2020 #4

I understand the anxiety, but I would say this much: Singapore is probably the safest place Coventina Jan 2020 #6

Thank you, and you're right. My other daughter, who lives in Croney Jan 2020 #10

Singapore has 4 confirmed cases. Zolorp Jan 2020 #14

4 confirmed cases in Singapore. n/t Ms. Toad Jan 2020 #8

Yikes. Croney Jan 2020 #11

CDC now reports 5 confirmed cases in USA. NutmegYankee Jan 2020 #5

The Johns Hopkins map (updated seconds ago) Ms. Toad Jan 2020 #9

It was a very recent announcement. NutmegYankee Jan 2020 #12

It is poor web design (I just figured that out) Ms. Toad Jan 2020 #13

Also not reporting the 3 suspected cases in Virginia. Zolorp Jan 2020 #15

It doesn't have a complete report of the suspected cases. Ms. Toad Jan 2020 #19

Suspected cases in the US do bear watching, though. Zolorp Jan 2020 #20

Definitely - Ms. Toad Jan 2020 #21

There is some data to suggest that the infection rate is in the 80% range for those exposed to this. Zolorp Jan 2020 #28

I remember the DU hysteria over Ebola, cwydro Jan 2020 #16

real deal avlbeerfan Jan 2020 #17

Lol. cwydro Jan 2020 #26

Oh, yes. I recall the ignorant nonsense that was posted here. PoindexterOglethorpe Jan 2020 #18

The numbers are low now. LisaL Jan 2020 #22

So - using the 5 confirmed cases in the US Ms. Toad Jan 2020 #25

I hope they make a vaccine for this. jpak Jan 2020 #30

I've seen reports they are working on it. n/t Ms. Toad Jan 2020 #31

where are these predictions coming from? stopdiggin Jan 2020 #38

Math. Ms. Toad Jan 2020 #39

understood. these are your own calculations. stopdiggin Jan 2020 #41

My own calculations, based on CDC data. Ms. Toad Jan 2020 #43

This early on? Newest Reality Jan 2020 #27

All cases of infection in the US came through airports Zolorp Jan 2020 #29

My estimates (in a post above) Ms. Toad Jan 2020 #32

Thank you... Newest Reality Jan 2020 #33

Ebola has an extremely high death rate, but thankfully only becomes contagious after people show LisaL Jan 2020 #23

Well Ebola was horrible. Still is. leftyladyfrommo Jan 2020 #24

Here is a way to track confirmed cases. nocoincidences Jan 2020 #34

Cool - but it's only got about half of the cases in it. n/t Ms. Toad Jan 2020 #40

The author is in Europe. nocoincidences Jan 2020 #45

Thanks, I live in central Va. Great. Wonder what hospital they are at? 58Sunliner Jan 2020 #35

Watch that site. nocoincidences Jan 2020 #36

I knew it had to be in Va. and DC-Md. appalachiablue Jan 2020 #37

Getting a little concerned here ecstatic Jan 2020 #42

All the best and Please let us know how you are doing, ok? appalachiablue Jan 2020 #44