General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: 3 New Suspected Cases in Virginia [View all]Ms. Toad
(38,617 posts)I calculated the actual flu death rate from 2018-2019 using the CDC numbers (61,000/45,000,000 = .001356 = .136% (less than 1%). I calculated the current death rate based on the CDC confirmed infections (2118) and reported deaths (56) = .02644 = 2.6%. Then I compared the two. (2.644/.1356 = 19.49) They've added a few more infections - but no more deaths since the last calculation, so the death rate is slightly different.
Based on current numbers comparing the current death rate from coronavirus to last year's flu death rate, the coronavirus is 19.49% more deadly than the flu (last year).
If I calculate it based on the first 45 infections - whose infections are more likely to have all resolved one way or another that death rate was closer to 15% (I can't find the exact numbers at the moment - that would make it 110 times more deadly
It is likely that the 2.644% is an underestimate, since it includes all confirmed infections - even those just diagnosed and unlikely to have died. I've seen predictions of around 4%. If that is the case, it is about 29 times more deadly.