That's what happens with incumbents during an economy that people are happy with, especially if that incumbent's party has been in power only one term. It is easily the most favorable situational scenario in American politics. The benefit of a doubt is astronomical.
People who continue to obsess over daily variables and listen to Rachel Maddow will continue to have the real world sail comfortably over their head. Those daily developments mean absolutely nothing in the big picture. Issues mean squat. Situational factors dictate one political outcome after another and they can be easily identified years in advance. Democrats are in favorable scenario in 2024 no matter what happens this year. But 2020 always set up as awful, once Barack Obama was re-elected in 2012.
Once Obama was re-elected it meant Democrats would either be seeking a 4th consecutive term in 2020, or the Republican would be in that catbird seat of incumbent whose party has been in power only one term. Basically it's a minor miracle if we win in 2020. It would defy all historical precedent. Trump can only lose in 2020. We cannot defeat him if he doesn't give it away. That's the sad situational reality.
The good news is that he has done a marvelous job of giving it away since early 2017. But undecideds and swing voters were always going to trend back to the incumbent. I have predicted for years that his approval rating would uptick toward 45% level on 538 as the 2020 election approached. Hispanics in particular have an overwhelming tendency toward benefit of a doubt to the incumbent. Trump's lies and grotesque personality and all the insults are now an accepted part of American life, whether we want to believe it or not. The shock factor has dissipated immensely. That is another aspect I forecast in 2017.
If we continue to disbelieve any poll that shows Trump's approval trending upward, it's going to be a long pathetic year. Keep in mind that his actual popular vote percentage will likely be at least 3% above the 538 number, i.e. 43% approval equating to 46% of the vote, and so forth. I think we can defeat him at 46% popular vote like 2016, but not at 48%. That's when our electoral college deficit gets in the way. It is the reason it is so vital to keep Trump's approval where it is now, and not another 2-3 points higher.
We desperately need him to make a series of atrocious gaffes, like something bigoted or so unkind that even people who had been trending back in his direction are shocked and retreat.
The other possibility is an economic collapse and specifically the stock market. I am heavily involved but more than willing to accept that scenario if the timing is proper. Unfortunately many forecasts have it delayed until post-election.
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