truly realistic path to winning. Especially IF the economy holds up.
This map tells the tale. If he takes WI, there is almost no way we can flip Iowa, based off the overall trend flow. FL speaks for itself. This map gives us every other state that is truly close now, or historically has been in reality. In all the other red states listed, Trump has fairly solid, or overwhelming lead in, even over Biden atm. There is almost zero chance that he wins WI, IA, and FL but then loses a NC or an AZ, it just will not happen more than likely. Could it happen? of course, but we are now into the realms of pure hopes and prayers, etc.
I even give us PA on this map, where Trump is up by a pretty big margin atm and I have to put in the Red column atm with a gun to my head. I give it to us here just to prove my point about WI and FL. Obviously IF Trump wins PA, then even flipping IA and WI does not matter at all, and the odds of that now meaningless split are 1000 to 1 at that point anyway:
there is one tiny variance that will make it even more of nightmare
If we flip ME-2 back to blue
That yields the ultimate shitstorm, one that rips the nation apart, especially if we win the popular vote by millions upon millions again, even perhaps by such a large margin we would win the popular vote even AFTER CA is subtracted:
a 269-269 tie
with the 26 House delegations the Rethugs control giving Trump the exact numer he needs to win in the House. We have almost no shot, due to gerrymandering to pull back the 2 closest Rethug-controlled delegations, those being .......... drum roll................WI and FL, SO IRONICALLY!!!! Even if we did flip one, there is a decent shot that the Rethugs take control of the one that is now tied, PA or they could take back MI or AZ or CO, the ony other remotely close delegations.
The good news is, IF we win FL, we can lose ALL the other remotely close states and even one of NV or NH, and still win. We just cannot lose both of NV and NH, as that would give him the win as well, with either 270 or 271, depending on ME-2.
In all this, I am not counting MI as anything but a clear Blue win, as Trump is underwater there against all of our candidates. If he ends up winning MI as well, the final results will be close to 2016, ie we have no hope, even if we flip FL and hold the rest of the 2016 Blues as a MI Trump win almost locks in a PA and WI loss as well, as those are far closer to Red than MI is now.
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