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berni_mccoy

(23,018 posts)

4. There are 40+k infected now with 1k dead.

Reply to Turbineguy (Reply #2)

Mon Feb 10, 2020, 10:14 PM

Feb 2020

The death and recovery rate lags the current infected rate by 3 weeks.

EVEN SO... today there are over 1000 dead. That’s a death rate of 2.5% and there are people who are confirmed infected today that will die within 3 weeks.

So 1% is extremely below any reasonable estimate.

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Death Toll Tops 1,000; Mortality Estimate at 1%: Virus Update [View all] Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Feb 2020 OP

That estimate is complete bullshit. It's more like 20-25%. berni_mccoy Feb 2020 #1

But mortality is related Turbineguy Feb 2020 #2

There are 40+k infected now with 1k dead. berni_mccoy Feb 2020 #4

The total reported cases is extremely underreported at this point. herding cats Feb 2020 #7

That could be true for the reported deaths as well.. though I agree berni_mccoy Feb 2020 #10

Look at the data outside of the epicenter of the outbreak. herding cats Feb 2020 #13

No, it's not. It's not even close to 20% let alone 25%. herding cats Feb 2020 #5

I've modeled these things before berni_mccoy Feb 2020 #6

It appears to be more infectious than SARS. herding cats Feb 2020 #8

The main concern I have is that the death-to-recovery rate is settling berni_mccoy Feb 2020 #9

You're working off erroneous data. herding cats Feb 2020 #11

The NEJM was not the only source for the asymptomatic evidence berni_mccoy Feb 2020 #15

Source me. herding cats Feb 2020 #19

If the numbers reported are accurate, Ms. Toad Feb 2020 #20

There are still too many questions to make any assumptions. 58Sunliner Feb 2020 #21

You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about nt Azathoth Feb 2020 #12

Informative response... berni_mccoy Feb 2020 #16

Why haven't we heard anything about greymalkin415 Feb 2020 #3

US has 13 cases according to John Hopkins. And per the CDC- 58Sunliner Feb 2020 #14

Last I could track anything down specifically, Ms. Toad Feb 2020 #18

That's a significantly lower mortality rate than the estimates I'm seeing - Ms. Toad Feb 2020 #17