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herding cats

(20,051 posts)

7. The total reported cases is extremely underreported at this point.

Reply to berni_mccoy (Reply #4)

Mon Feb 10, 2020, 10:23 PM

Feb 2020

Many, perhaps even most, mild cases who recovered on their own aren't in the tally.

Early stages of an outbreak are problematic to effectively tally. It will eventually take antibody tests of the population to actually know the numbers.

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Death Toll Tops 1,000; Mortality Estimate at 1%: Virus Update [View all] Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Feb 2020 OP

That estimate is complete bullshit. It's more like 20-25%. berni_mccoy Feb 2020 #1

But mortality is related Turbineguy Feb 2020 #2

There are 40+k infected now with 1k dead. berni_mccoy Feb 2020 #4

The total reported cases is extremely underreported at this point. herding cats Feb 2020 #7

That could be true for the reported deaths as well.. though I agree berni_mccoy Feb 2020 #10

Look at the data outside of the epicenter of the outbreak. herding cats Feb 2020 #13

No, it's not. It's not even close to 20% let alone 25%. herding cats Feb 2020 #5

I've modeled these things before berni_mccoy Feb 2020 #6

It appears to be more infectious than SARS. herding cats Feb 2020 #8

The main concern I have is that the death-to-recovery rate is settling berni_mccoy Feb 2020 #9

You're working off erroneous data. herding cats Feb 2020 #11

The NEJM was not the only source for the asymptomatic evidence berni_mccoy Feb 2020 #15

Source me. herding cats Feb 2020 #19

If the numbers reported are accurate, Ms. Toad Feb 2020 #20

There are still too many questions to make any assumptions. 58Sunliner Feb 2020 #21

You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about nt Azathoth Feb 2020 #12

Informative response... berni_mccoy Feb 2020 #16

Why haven't we heard anything about greymalkin415 Feb 2020 #3

US has 13 cases according to John Hopkins. And per the CDC- 58Sunliner Feb 2020 #14

Last I could track anything down specifically, Ms. Toad Feb 2020 #18

That's a significantly lower mortality rate than the estimates I'm seeing - Ms. Toad Feb 2020 #17