America's massive trade deficit: Why BIG tariffs won't hurt the United States

[pampango]

150. "So you admit there was no correlation between S/H and the lack of a recovery." - No.

With S/H trade crashed and the economy crashed. After FDR emasculated S/H in 1934 the economy grew and trade grew even faster.

The correlation is: trade played a smaller and smaller role in a falling economy, while is played a larger and larger part of a rising economy. Correlation is not causation but, to answer your question, there was a correlation.

"Trade went up because the economy went up..."

Even you seem to see a correlation between rising trade and a rising economy. Now you are arguing causation, not correlation. If high tariffs discouraged trade to the point that it improved the economy (which seems to be your policy recommendation) then why would a rising economy be correlated with even faster rising trade. I think the architects of S/H would have thought that as trade decreased the economy would get stronger.

"You don't even get CLOSE to causation."

Never said that I did. I was responding to your contention that there was no correlation. Exploring causation would require much more than a chart. A chart doesn't prove that a rising economy causes exploding trade (again, S/H supporters would logically think that exploding trade should be linked to a falling economy). Neither does it prove that exploding trade causes a rising economy. It just shows that they go together.

"Typically, trade goes down very fast when an economy collapses, and roars back when an economy recovers."

Again, S/H supporters would logically believe declining (not 'exploding') trade would be tied to a improving economy. The whole point of higher tariffs is to reduce trade which (in S/H's view) will lead to a stronger economy. Logically the more trade declines the stronger the economy gets.

If higher tariffs caused a stronger economy the chart should show a correlation that declining trade was at least correlated to a rising economy. And it should show that as FDR lower tariffs the economy should have gotten weaker. Your chart shows he exact opposite correlation.

Again, a chart does not prove causation but in terms of correlation, it would seem that FDR was right that rising trade is correlated with a rising economy. It certainly does not show that as trade declines the economy rises.

"High tariffs in 1921 and 1922 were more than overwhelmingly countered by de-regulation. ... I won't troll you and claim it was the RTAA that killed the recovery - it was, in fact, austerity."

We agree here. In terms of producing a prosperous middle class and strong unions, regressive government policies like deregulation and austerity can overwhelm trade policy. I would add that regressive policies like tax cuts for the rich, union bashing and slashing the safety net overwhelm trade policy as much as deregulation and austerity.

"And you certainly are committed to "throw US under the bus". Not self-proclaimed at any rate, as is your commitment to "us vs. them". I post my policy preferences, as we all do. I leave the determination of my motivations to the arbiters of DU like yourself.

So now opposition to high tariffs is a matter of patriotism not a policy choice. (FDR should be posthumously prosecuted as "unpatriotic".) Wave the flag much.

"China's economy exploded under its protectionist policies of currency devaluation and a 25% tariff against American goods.

If they can do it, so can we."

That's what I want - for the US to be more like China, not more like Canada or Germany or Sweden.