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FBaggins

(28,763 posts)

23. The argument is internally inconsistent

Mon Feb 24, 2020, 06:54 PM

Feb 2020

A new Gallup Poll revealed that support for House incumbents is at its highest level since 2012, which means impeachment didn’t hurt Democrats

One does not follow from the other. Incumbents are always reelected at a high rate. The question is what's happening in the 40-or-so districts that were red in 2016 and blue in 2018.

The number is quite close to where it was at the same point in 1994 and there was quite a change in the House that Fall. It's also right where it was in 2006... another year where control changed hands.

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Bad News For Trump As Poll Shows Impeachment Helped House Democrats [View all] applegrove Feb 2020 OP

Yay! DarthDem Feb 2020 #1

Would like to see how the new Dem flippers [red district Dems who won in 2018], empedocles Feb 2020 #5

Here in MI-08, Elissa Slotkin won a narrow victory in our red-leaning district. catbyte Feb 2020 #12

Yep all this stuff about sanders is not accurate jimfields33 Feb 2020 #6

The House is probably safely Dem, but the Senate? joost5 Feb 2020 #15

Agree. Let's support Amy McGrath and contribute to her campaign if we can to kick Moscow Mitch to onetexan Feb 2020 #28

https://amymcgrath.com/ joost5 Feb 2020 #37

Check out the Payback Project! lastlib Feb 2020 #45

And Gallop runs conservative. Phoenix61 Feb 2020 #2

You mean acting like Democrats helps Democrats? gratuitous Feb 2020 #3

Perhaps acting like patriots helps politicians in general... Wounded Bear Feb 2020 #20

the political wisdom of impeachment was NOT at all stopdiggin Feb 2020 #38

I disagree gratuitous Feb 2020 #40

I can agree with you (broadly) on principal stopdiggin Feb 2020 #41

That's excellent! Mickju Feb 2020 #4

While this is certainly not set in stone ibegurpard Feb 2020 #7

Then why did his approval go up the past 2 weeks? OliverQ Feb 2020 #8

Look at 538 aggregates -- you'll feel better Grasswire2 Feb 2020 #10

I don't, because 43% is still terrifyingly high OliverQ Feb 2020 #13

and there WAS a bump stopdiggin Feb 2020 #39

Yes, that is encouraging. I like the matchups with other presidential terms too. Chemisse Feb 2020 #29

suppress their support for Trump and local Democrats. In order to burst forth on election day. kiri Feb 2020 #44

Statistically insignificant and the plummeting stock market will hurt him a lot. lagomorph777 Feb 2020 #11

I doubt it. Stock market crashes don't seem to hurt his approval. OliverQ Feb 2020 #14

There hasn't been a signifigant one since he's been in office. Mr.Bill Feb 2020 #21

The 5 biggest single day drops in US history have all been in the last 3 years. OliverQ Feb 2020 #27

Except he is responsible for any damage done by the coronavirus. Chemisse Feb 2020 #30

I agree, but he will deny it Mr.Bill Feb 2020 #33

But the swing voters are likely to see what's really going on at this point. Chemisse Feb 2020 #34

True. n/t Mr.Bill Feb 2020 #36

Has there been a prolonged market downturn during this misadministration? klook Feb 2020 #22

No, there hasn't. Mr.Bill Feb 2020 #32

Whoever the nominee is, I'd like to see Ilsa Feb 2020 #9

Democrats proud of the case they made and the way they made it bucolic_frolic Feb 2020 #16

Whew!! I hope our choice of a nominee doesn't interfere with this! nt LAS14 Feb 2020 #17

They stood up for the law. mountain grammy Feb 2020 #18

Thanks applegrove. Great news! C Moon Feb 2020 #19

The argument is internally inconsistent FBaggins Feb 2020 #23

Bit since '94 some of the gerrymandering has been eliminated Mr.Bill Feb 2020 #35

Not hopeful ZERTErYNOthe Feb 2020 #24

Excellent. klook Feb 2020 #25

great! Kurt V. Feb 2020 #26

This makes me feel relieved DenverJared Feb 2020 #31

Losing the House if unthinkable if Trump ekes out another 4 years. LudwigPastorius Feb 2020 #42

This is why the Russian Republicans in the House and Senate like Moscow Mitch cstanleytech Feb 2020 #43