Contrary to Fox Noise, Coronavirus is not like the flu. Simple numbers I found:

[Pachamama]

11. The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is currently 6% - the 3.4% is not the correct number

Notice no one from WHO, CDC, NIH etc will ever say with certainty that the death or mortality rate is X. In fact they know that number is a moving target and can also be based only on “Known” cases and be only factually and conclusively calculated based on “Cases with Outcome”

Currently, there are 101,955 “Known reported Cases” (and assuming all reported that were known”). There are likely many times that number not reported because they are “unknown” and are asymptomatic and spreading it around with an Ro transmission rate twice of the seasonal flu. (Ro for seasonal flu is 1-1.5 persons infected from infected person and the COVID-19 virus has a Ro rate of 2-3 persons infected from infected person).

Of the 101,955 known reported cases, 59,589 (approx. 58%) are what is known as “Cases with Outcome”. There are only two possible outcomes:

1) You Are Dead (Currently 3466 dead as of March 6th, 2020

2) You Recovered (Currently 56,123 of cases with Outcome recovered as of March 6th, 2020)

This is a 5.8 CFR of the known cases with Outcome. A definitive number. This is the number to be watching and is going to likely be 1-2 years from now this or higher and after there is a vaccine and the epidemic is over that historical references to “death rate” of COVID-19 will end up being. Expect in coming months the official number that WHO quotes as fatality rate will be bumped up from 3.4% to 5-6%. Higher if the CFR of Cases with known outcome rises.


The other half of “known reported Cases” are “Cases with No known Outcome”. Of those cases which currently is 42,366 (and does not include unknown infected people which could be 2-10 times that) there are two categories:

1) Infected Patient with Mild Condition (Currently 35,965 as of March 6th, 2020) - 85% of known infected cases with unknown outcome.

2) Patients in Serious or Critical Condition (which can be two sub categories but calculated and tracked currently and reported as one by WHO) is currently 6401 as of March 6th, 2020) - 15% of known infected cases with unknown outcome.


Watch this number very closely because the total cases of known infected people will continue to rise as more people get sick and show symptoms and are tested. Watch the number in the Serious to critical condition number and percentage. It of course varies country to country in data due to the medical system and available care, age and health of the individual. Older people over 60 and with under lying conditions like hypertension, heart disease, cancer etc have the highest fatality rate - the lowest being the young and heathy.

But based on the overall data tracked since the reporting began - approx 50% of the people in the category of cases in serious to critical condition are dying. I expect therefore how data haas been tracking that an additional 3000 plus will be dead in the next several weeks, doubling the current number of dead and again, making the CFR closer to 6%. Yes, a 6% death rate.

Compare that to the seasonal flu which has a death rate of .1% and the Spanish Flu of 1918-1920 that was 1-2% (depending on which data you get of how many thought to have been infected and who died ranging from 20 -50 Million people.

You don’t need to be a Math genius to be able to do the math of seeing that the COVID-19 Coronavirus is far far worse and what the number of infected and number of dead will likely be 1-2 years from now if the spread continues.

And don’t believe anyone who tells you there will be a cure and vaccine soon. Even if the global medical mad scientist community and greatest minds worked closely together, we won’t have a vaccine for at least one year. And what happens when we aren’t testing and containing and it spreads twice as fast.