General Discussion

mr_lebowski

(33,643 posts)

30. No offense but I think you're maybe missing something my ladyfriend PO :)

Reply to PoindexterOglethorpe (Reply #23)

Sat Mar 7, 2020, 03:36 AM

Mar 2020

If there's 100,000 'cases with known outcome', and in 3400 of these cases, the patient died ... then the death rate is considered to be 3.4%.

The fact that 200K, 500K, 1M other people technically 'got the disease' as well ... is not relevant and is not used for calculation of death rates for any disease. Because that number is unknown, and it will always be unknown.

And 'hospitalizations' are not synonymous with 'known cases', for COVID or Flu.

Think of this as working something like a 'poll' would work. If I randomly sample 1000 people and 520 say they would vote for Biden, we can assume that the actual percentage of the total voting population that would vote for Biden would fall within a certain (fairly small) % range from 52%.

It doesn't matter that we failed to ask the other 279,999,000 other voters (or whatever the number is) who they'd vote for.

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

56 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Contrary to Fox Noise, Coronavirus is not like the flu. Simple numbers I found: [View all] garybeck Mar 2020 OP

I wish people would stop doing that FBaggins Mar 2020 #1

we know that the death rate so far is 3.4% globally. garybeck Mar 2020 #3

Nope... it isn't FBaggins Mar 2020 #8

It's true that we have only preliminary estimates.. defacto7 Mar 2020 #14

Yes, we can't go on speculation just what we know. The math from WHAT WE KNOW is this is worse uponit7771 Mar 2020 #24

Is it not the same for the flu? mmbrevo Mar 2020 #25

This is not true. defacto7 Mar 2020 #12

Thank you. There's a huge misconception about the entire population mortality rate. Pobeka Mar 2020 #20

That's not what the Harvard epidemiologist said, at all. DanTex Mar 2020 #41

You're right, I misinterpreted what he said. Pobeka Mar 2020 #42

The hospitalization rates are the bigger problem Recursion Mar 2020 #32

Initial calculations were lower. They've gone up. Crunchy Frog Mar 2020 #50

We hope that's true. The original SARS was, early, estimated at 3%. It was 9%. enki23 Mar 2020 #51

Thank you for reminding folks of this. Mike 03 Mar 2020 #2

that is some scary sh*t garybeck Mar 2020 #4

Wouldn't be "fine," even if mortality rate were revised down... pat_k Mar 2020 #5

That 3% mortality is those who had symptoms severe enough to seek PoindexterOglethorpe Mar 2020 #6

your point is? garybeck Mar 2020 #9

My point is that no where near 3% of all who get the disease are dying. PoindexterOglethorpe Mar 2020 #17

Why did China have to build 2 hospitals in record time? Dem2 Mar 2020 #45

To warehouse people. PoindexterOglethorpe Mar 2020 #46

I wish I had some idea what the odds were of her getting it Dem2 Mar 2020 #47

Currently there is no realistic was to calculate those odds. PoindexterOglethorpe Mar 2020 #48

They're not just counting those who have been hospitalized. Where did you get that idea? Crunchy Frog Mar 2020 #53

Your last sentence really comes off poorly. Do you know what a 3% death rate looks. GulfCoast66 Mar 2020 #10

See my post#11 giving an explanation of Mortality rates in the epidemiology world Pachamama Mar 2020 #13

It's figured on the percentage of deaths where there is an outcome. defacto7 Mar 2020 #15

It still does not count the many who have mild or no symptoms. PoindexterOglethorpe Mar 2020 #22

Have we heard from the professional epidemiologists that put out these numbers mr_lebowski Mar 2020 #29

They probably say it because epidemiologists defacto7 Mar 2020 #40

Fox News, nothing! I'm seeing it here! Squinch Mar 2020 #7

The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is currently 6% - the 3.4% is not the correct number Pachamama Mar 2020 #11

On the mark. defacto7 Mar 2020 #16

thank you but i think you're missing the point, as others are garybeck Mar 2020 #18

Clearly I am not missing the point which is why I posted real math to show the point n/t Pachamama Mar 2020 #19

Known reported cases. PoindexterOglethorpe Mar 2020 #23

No offense but I think you're maybe missing something my ladyfriend PO :) mr_lebowski Mar 2020 #30

Bingo. PoindexterOglethorpe Mar 2020 #37

The only 'very very very' many people you know for sure about ... mr_lebowski Mar 2020 #39

If unknown cases are not relevant, PoindexterOglethorpe Mar 2020 #43

In medically developed countries (not the US), Crunchy Frog Mar 2020 #56

Republicans are REALLY bad at math ThoughtCriminal Mar 2020 #21

What is the ***INFECTION*** rate !? Dying is horrible getting sick from this is bad !! uponit7771 Mar 2020 #26

It really is.. littlemissmartypants Mar 2020 #34

Thank you elleng Mar 2020 #27

So 35 million people get the seasonal flu in spite of wide spread vaccinations captain queeg Mar 2020 #28

The missing piece Onelove Vt Mar 2020 #31

Welcome to DU, and I 100% agree Recursion Mar 2020 #33

Welcome to DU! ❤ nt littlemissmartypants Mar 2020 #35

Even in a normal, boring, not very noticeable flu season, PoindexterOglethorpe Mar 2020 #38

"The drastic things that China did" greyl Mar 2020 #44

Great post, garybeck. Thanks for sharing this. ❤ nt littlemissmartypants Mar 2020 #36

it's more like 300x the mortality rate of the flu which is 0.01% (n/t) Spider Jerusalem Mar 2020 #49

"Like the flu" can mean a lot of things. I just read some about the "Spanish flu" back in 1918 brewens Mar 2020 #52

The R0 number is more important because it's exponential BernieBabies Mar 2020 #54

It's not 3% Terry_M Mar 2020 #55