according to Trump today. Right?!
The soonest a vaccine can be prepared will be November, according to reports from a company affiliated with the Pentagon. While I'd argue that stocks will eventually recover, we will test DJIA 15K well before we hit 30K.
Right now, I think most companies are still of the belief that this will only last a month; however, disruptions are going to seriously start hitting supply chains as ports get closed, as available truck drivers diminish, and as finished manufacturing gets idled. Tourism will not recover this year, retail is going to be hard hit, and as much as I'm a proponent of remote working, most companies are not prepared to go 100% virtual at this time.
Trump has the Devil's own luck, but after this, he's toast. if Biden is as smart as I think he is, the best thing he could do would be to start pulling together the threads of a pandemic task force to help coordinate a recovery effort from this. Ignore Sanders, keep the pressure on Trump, but to the extent possible start working with blue and purple states and external agencies to get a handle on getting a vaccine distributed as soon as possible, working with world leaders and basically acting like a president should. He'll need it by winter - Trump's done a serious number on HHS, the CDC and the FDA, and getting those back to functioning is going to take time and energy.
Re: business people - I own a business. Trump's economy has in general done very little to benefit me directly, indeed, I lost a number of deductions that had kept me afloat due to his "tax cuts". I have kept out of the market because I've been figuring something like this was about to happen. Markets that are kept afloat by smoke and mirrors tend to collapse spectacularly.
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