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sarisataka

(22,701 posts)

31. While the numbers are still growing,

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:40 PM

Mar 2020

The growth rate is slowing in many infected countries. The most highly infected countries are Italy and Norway at .03% and .02% respectively.

I have seen many dire predictions and models but so far not any explanation why the infection rate in the U.S. will be 500 times higher than the worst real world examples.

Reading over that article, they indicate the 1.6 million deaths is a worst case scenario and spread over 2-3 years. Their best case was 327 deaths over the same time frame. It doesn't explain why they believe, or even if they believe, the infection rate is likely to approach 15%.

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Death perspective for US Coronavirus [View all] SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 OP

Bump for truth bomb SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #1

Do you have a link to support this? n/t Chemisse Mar 2020 #2

Yes. Based on trackcorona.live SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #4

Thanks! n/t Chemisse Mar 2020 #12

It's down to 2.0% for the US Roland99 Mar 2020 #3

So far SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #6

We're far behind any industrialized country on testing. We're at 20k in 1 month, SK does 10k a day uponit7771 Mar 2020 #7

Perhaps 90% of cases haven't been identified The_jackalope Mar 2020 #11

So only a million deaths then? Goody! nt The_jackalope Mar 2020 #8

Exactly. And based on my lowball % infection rate SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #10

Assuming a 50% infection rate and an eventual 4% mortality The_jackalope Mar 2020 #17

Of course a 40% to 70% infection rate implies a lot of younger people being affected The_jackalope Mar 2020 #22

The percent of CFR is same no matter infection rate SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #24

Actually, no. The_jackalope Mar 2020 #28

I'm talking large numbers only SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #30

If these numbers hold true--only 1 million US deaths at 2% SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #9

It will rise when hospitals get over burdened Drahthaardogs Mar 2020 #36

Trump is doing nothing to flatten the curve. Blue_true Mar 2020 #48

Anyone got any happy numbers ? thx in advance uponit7771 Mar 2020 #5

You can just make some up like a lot of people do. defacto7 Mar 2020 #14

dag nabbit !!! uponit7771 Mar 2020 #19

There are none with this Amishman Mar 2020 #16

Well, only comparatively. coti Mar 2020 #18

China seems to have had success, an extent, so has Italy Blue_true Mar 2020 #50

China dragged people from their homes and forcibly tested them while 750 million stayed home. LaurenOlimina Mar 2020 #55

It will be interesting to see what happens in China once the country opens Blue_true Mar 2020 #56

yeah, holding my breath. LaurenOlimina Mar 2020 #57

You and hundreds of millions of other people, literally holding their Blue_true Mar 2020 #59

the one potential for a good outcome el_bryanto Mar 2020 #20

+1, Fauci wouldn't happy path variables in his models hopefully he doesn't want to get hopes up uponit7771 Mar 2020 #21

Correct. Better to scare people into accepting draconian measures SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #26

That is my hope and the reason for posting SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #25

Stocks for toilet paper manufacturers are up 100% Renew Deal Mar 2020 #29

+1 uponit7771 Mar 2020 #32

And yet I can see the main thoroughfare gldstwmn Mar 2020 #13

What country sarisataka Mar 2020 #15

Most are in growth mode still--wouldn't trust China numbers SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #23

While the numbers are still growing, sarisataka Mar 2020 #31

I wish people could understand this has only been growing in Iran/Europe since Feb SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #37

I wish people understood the difference sarisataka Mar 2020 #39

From your own linked site, look at US infection growth rate SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #41

Indeed it is right now sarisataka Mar 2020 #46

Experts predict longer term (1.5 to 2 years) to be 40-70% SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #47

I think that possibility is derived from Spanish Flu rates. The_jackalope Mar 2020 #27

I can see where sarisataka Mar 2020 #38

Frankly, it's impossible to say just yet. It's still early days, The_jackalope Mar 2020 #40

The China curve is because all other provinces went into forced lockdown SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #49

I agree. I don't really think that outcome is possible The_jackalope Mar 2020 #51

No, it'll be between 0.5 to 5 percent davekriss Mar 2020 #33

Thanks for the added info. Shows we all gotta be serious about this SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #34

Medium links TwilightZone Mar 2020 #42

This is the best article I have read on this so far SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #44

Let Bucky work it out. Turbineguy Mar 2020 #35

Corona Math Botany Mar 2020 #43

Exactly. Fortunately, we have the ability to dramatically ratchet those numbers down SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #45

This message was self-deleted by its author dewsgirl Mar 2020 #52

Care to share? What was it about? SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #53

Even South Korea, which has done a masterful job of testing and limiting John Fante Mar 2020 #54

Hopefully some of those "promising" antivirals will be effective on a large scale Sapient Donkey Mar 2020 #58

My post from mid-March holds up. SiliconValley_Dem Apr 2020 #60