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davekriss

(5,436 posts)

33. No, it'll be between 0.5 to 5 percent

Reply to SiliconValley_Dem (Original post)

Sat Mar 14, 2020, 07:47 PM

Mar 2020

Last edited Sat Mar 14, 2020, 10:49 PM - Edit history (1)

That still means 480,000 U.S. dead in a few months. See this brilliant article (nearly irrefutable logic):

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

I first noticed this link in another DU thread, but forgot who posted it. Because of the “@“ in the address, you’ll have to copy and paste into your browser.

I misspoke. From the article:

“This is what you can conclude:

Excluding these, countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).

Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%”

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Death perspective for US Coronavirus [View all] SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 OP

Bump for truth bomb SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #1

Do you have a link to support this? n/t Chemisse Mar 2020 #2

Yes. Based on trackcorona.live SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #4

Thanks! n/t Chemisse Mar 2020 #12

It's down to 2.0% for the US Roland99 Mar 2020 #3

So far SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #6

We're far behind any industrialized country on testing. We're at 20k in 1 month, SK does 10k a day uponit7771 Mar 2020 #7

Perhaps 90% of cases haven't been identified The_jackalope Mar 2020 #11

So only a million deaths then? Goody! nt The_jackalope Mar 2020 #8

Exactly. And based on my lowball % infection rate SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #10

Assuming a 50% infection rate and an eventual 4% mortality The_jackalope Mar 2020 #17

Of course a 40% to 70% infection rate implies a lot of younger people being affected The_jackalope Mar 2020 #22

The percent of CFR is same no matter infection rate SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #24

Actually, no. The_jackalope Mar 2020 #28

I'm talking large numbers only SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #30

If these numbers hold true--only 1 million US deaths at 2% SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #9

It will rise when hospitals get over burdened Drahthaardogs Mar 2020 #36

Trump is doing nothing to flatten the curve. Blue_true Mar 2020 #48

Anyone got any happy numbers ? thx in advance uponit7771 Mar 2020 #5

You can just make some up like a lot of people do. defacto7 Mar 2020 #14

dag nabbit !!! uponit7771 Mar 2020 #19

There are none with this Amishman Mar 2020 #16

Well, only comparatively. coti Mar 2020 #18

China seems to have had success, an extent, so has Italy Blue_true Mar 2020 #50

China dragged people from their homes and forcibly tested them while 750 million stayed home. LaurenOlimina Mar 2020 #55

It will be interesting to see what happens in China once the country opens Blue_true Mar 2020 #56

yeah, holding my breath. LaurenOlimina Mar 2020 #57

You and hundreds of millions of other people, literally holding their Blue_true Mar 2020 #59

the one potential for a good outcome el_bryanto Mar 2020 #20

+1, Fauci wouldn't happy path variables in his models hopefully he doesn't want to get hopes up uponit7771 Mar 2020 #21

Correct. Better to scare people into accepting draconian measures SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #26

That is my hope and the reason for posting SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #25

Stocks for toilet paper manufacturers are up 100% Renew Deal Mar 2020 #29

+1 uponit7771 Mar 2020 #32

And yet I can see the main thoroughfare gldstwmn Mar 2020 #13

What country sarisataka Mar 2020 #15

Most are in growth mode still--wouldn't trust China numbers SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #23

While the numbers are still growing, sarisataka Mar 2020 #31

I wish people could understand this has only been growing in Iran/Europe since Feb SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #37

I wish people understood the difference sarisataka Mar 2020 #39

From your own linked site, look at US infection growth rate SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #41

Indeed it is right now sarisataka Mar 2020 #46

Experts predict longer term (1.5 to 2 years) to be 40-70% SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #47

I think that possibility is derived from Spanish Flu rates. The_jackalope Mar 2020 #27

I can see where sarisataka Mar 2020 #38

Frankly, it's impossible to say just yet. It's still early days, The_jackalope Mar 2020 #40

The China curve is because all other provinces went into forced lockdown SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #49

I agree. I don't really think that outcome is possible The_jackalope Mar 2020 #51

No, it'll be between 0.5 to 5 percent davekriss Mar 2020 #33

Thanks for the added info. Shows we all gotta be serious about this SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #34

Medium links TwilightZone Mar 2020 #42

This is the best article I have read on this so far SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #44

Let Bucky work it out. Turbineguy Mar 2020 #35

Corona Math Botany Mar 2020 #43

Exactly. Fortunately, we have the ability to dramatically ratchet those numbers down SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #45

This message was self-deleted by its author dewsgirl Mar 2020 #52

Care to share? What was it about? SiliconValley_Dem Mar 2020 #53

Even South Korea, which has done a masterful job of testing and limiting John Fante Mar 2020 #54

Hopefully some of those "promising" antivirals will be effective on a large scale Sapient Donkey Mar 2020 #58

My post from mid-March holds up. SiliconValley_Dem Apr 2020 #60