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jberryhill

(62,444 posts)
36. No, you don't understand reality
Tue Mar 24, 2020, 04:34 PM
Mar 2020

That would not be a "surge".

It is a simple projection of the current trend.

Since you don't understand the reality of how nature works in this regard, it's easier shown with pictures.

These are US cases so far:



An easier way to understand an exponential growth curve is to visualize it in logarithmic form. So point your reality-perceiving devices at this:



Do you see how that lines up?

Do you see how each tick on the vertical scale is a factor of 10?

What that means is that the time it takes to go from 10 to 100 is the same as it takes to go from 100 to 1000 which is the same as it takes to to from 1000 to 10000.

That is the reality, DI.

Moving from cases to deaths, you have to understand that deaths lag cases. In other words, it takes several days on average for people to go from being a case to a death.

Here it is on a linear scale:



Here it is on a logarithmic scale:



Do you know how to draw a straight line with a ruler?

Even if we are following a Gaussian curve, we have not yet hit an inflection point. We are nowhere near an inflection point.

I'm sorry to break it to you, but neither your "gut feel", nor Trump's for that matter, is a reflection of any "reality".

I have no words for this, my dear Swede. It's too horrifying. n/t CaliforniaPeggy Mar 2020 #1
It is horrifying. Swede Mar 2020 #4
Spam deleted by MIR Team MaxP Mar 2020 #2
Modeling study. Take with a grain of salt. Loki Liesmith Mar 2020 #3
Agreed. We don't have enough data to make such serious predictions of numbers. I'm not denying napi21 Mar 2020 #8
Here are further links. Swede Mar 2020 #10
+1000 HarlanPepper Mar 2020 #24
Completely accurate jberryhill Apr 2020 #48
I don't think you need to be educated to know this is a serious threat. BigmanPigman Mar 2020 #5
1000 deaths/day. Two 9/11's per week. And just today Trump is tweeting about RockRaven Mar 2020 #6
We're totally fucked either way. Initech Mar 2020 #9
It's almost worse than that. He doesn't have the legal authority to directly order governors/local RockRaven Mar 2020 #11
No worries, Donny can step in at anytime. Grokenstein Mar 2020 #7
Jesus that is scary GusBob Mar 2020 #12
I'm skeptical of that death total. Drunken Irishman Mar 2020 #13
I think we're going to be worse than Italy. milestogo Mar 2020 #15
Possible but we're not going to lose 12,000+ in two weeks, imo Drunken Irishman Mar 2020 #16
The entire point of the OP localroger Mar 2020 #18
I remember a story about the guy who invented chess. panader0 Mar 2020 #19
It takes half the chess board to get to 1 kilogram localroger Mar 2020 #22
Sorry but no. 12,000+ are not going to die in a span of two weeks. Drunken Irishman Mar 2020 #20
You are aware of what happened in 1918, right? localroger Mar 2020 #21
It's not 1918. Drunken Irishman Mar 2020 #23
No, it's worse localroger Mar 2020 #25
We're not going to have 12,400+ people die in two weeks. Drunken Irishman Mar 2020 #27
It most certainly does jberryhill Mar 2020 #29
Na. I guarantee we're not going to hit that number in two weeks. Drunken Irishman Mar 2020 #32
I'm bookmarking the thread and watching Worldometers Covid-19 plot. GoneOffShore Mar 2020 #38
Yup. Those numbers back me up. Thanks. Drunken Irishman Mar 2020 #40
" by April 7th, likely 4,000" jberryhill Apr 2020 #44
And we're still not on pace to 13,000 in six days. Drunken Irishman Apr 2020 #45
Yes, we were. jberryhill Apr 2020 #50
April 7, 8PM Eastern, 12,790 jberryhill Apr 2020 #51
I don't think DI understands how to read a logarithmic scale jberryhill Mar 2020 #41
lmao I know how to read. Thanks. Drunken Irishman Mar 2020 #43
"in two weeks, when we're nowhere near 12,000+ dead" jberryhill Apr 2020 #47
RemindMe! 2 weeks Dr. Strange Mar 2020 #42
You are correct - it was HIGHER than that jberryhill Apr 2020 #52
Can I ask you a question? A serious question? jberryhill Mar 2020 #28
I understand reality. Drunken Irishman Mar 2020 #35
No, you don't understand reality jberryhill Mar 2020 #36
The current trend does not forecast 12,000+ dead in two weeks. Drunken Irishman Mar 2020 #37
April 7 - 1:26 PM - 12,227 jberryhill Apr 2020 #46
Looks like someone on DU owes YOU an apology BigmanPigman Apr 2020 #53
I just thought to check back on this, thanks for having my back localroger Apr 2020 #54
And now, a week after passing 12,000 on schedule, it is more than double that again... jberryhill Apr 2020 #55
Calling if "mathematical proof" is the first clue of click bait. Steelrolled Mar 2020 #14
This Jirel Mar 2020 #30
Certainly within the realm of possibility captain queeg Mar 2020 #17
Thank you to those who DarthDem Mar 2020 #26
Far more people in the U.S. have the coronavirus than you think Swede Mar 2020 #31
What ever our fate is Chainfire Mar 2020 #33
Our fate was sealed in November 2016. Thanks to everyone who helped seal it. n/t zackymilly Mar 2020 #39
Almost 13k will die of a hoax. Duppers Mar 2020 #34
Look at this thread jberryhill Apr 2020 #49
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