Italian mayor and Health CEO: Real death toll for Covid-19 is at least 4 times the official numbers

[Igel]

1. That'll be part of it.

On the other hand, it's easy to overlook factors.

The first thing I'd want to include in a year-over-year comparison is an evaluation of the trend for those towns.

If the deaths for the previous 5 years for that month + this year are 35-35-36-35-34-156, you're onto something.

If they're 30-65-25--55-35-156 you're onto something, but markedly less. Deaths are missed, but how many is a question--is it 90 or 130? Or do I do the fair thing and say it's 110 +/- 20?

Given the population pyramid, though, there's the possibility that the 6 month series shows increasing deaths, and at some point there'll be a jump. Aging populations don't have flat death totals per year.

I've also heard the flip side of this argument. COVID, once diagnosed, is the cause of the death. You're already near death, catch COVID, COVID kills you. My mother died of the flu--because the flu was the immediate cause of death, even though the nursing home had already said it would only be a matter of weeks or months. 90% was other things, but they were "contributing causes".