General Discussion

Ms. Toad

(38,664 posts) Sun Mar 29, 2020, 10:59 PM Mar 2020

Good news on the case growth trend. [View all]

An 8-day decline in the rate of increase in new cases (with one outlier, which could easily be a report of cases that should be on 3/26 that were made before the close of worldometers day.

Daily multipliers (# cases on prior day x multiplier = #new cases for the current date)from 3/22 through 3/29:

3/22 - 1.385797497
3/23 - 1.303732189
3/24 - 1.253526924
3/25 - 1.244204075
3/26 - 1.252510592
3/27 - 1.218774507
3/28 - 1.186812131
3/29 - 1.149452168

No guarantees it will continue - but this is a nice long streak of slowing the growth. We're still seeing more cases each day (the multiplier is more than 1). But were not seeing as many new cases, proportional to the existing cases, as we have been.

I would expect a correction, at some point, similar to the one in China on 2/12 & 13 once we start to see the rapid tests deployed. But I am hopeful that this represents a real flattening of the curve.

44 replies

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Good news on the case growth trend. [View all] Ms. Toad Mar 2020 OP

Considering how hard it is to get tested, I wouldn't count my chickens just yet. LisaL Mar 2020 #1

You did read my last sentence, yes? n/t Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #2

I am just pointing out the obvious. LisaL Mar 2020 #3

According to today's curve, Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #7

Shouldn't caveats go first? n/t JustFiveMoreMinutes Mar 2020 #33

Nope. Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #37

I'm waiting for Florida's numbers to spike in a week or less Ilsa Mar 2020 #4

That is optimistic. 33taw Mar 2020 #5

Nothing I said suggested we were near the peak. Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #11

Death rate is probably the more important stat to track right now... JCMach1 Mar 2020 #6

The death rate will trail the new case rate by approximately 2 weeks. Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #14

Operative word is tested Lithos Mar 2020 #8

Yep. LisaL Mar 2020 #10

See China's curve on 2/12 & 2/13 Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #15

Like I pointed out last night, China took brutally drastic action, Blue_true Mar 2020 #19

It's also likely they aren't exactly honest about how many people actually died. LisaL Mar 2020 #20

Yes, I noticed that, compared to Italy. nt Blue_true Mar 2020 #24

Just reporting observations, Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #21

You points are very sound if big cities where Governors or Mayors Blue_true Mar 2020 #26

Have no issue with looking for hope in all this. Hoyt Mar 2020 #9

And me as well. eom sprinkleeninow Mar 2020 #29

Here's an interesting video that explains it. MyMission Mar 2020 #12

I've seen it before - it is very good! Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #16

I don't think that people are challenging your statement about the virus Blue_true Mar 2020 #23

Some are. It is those people I hope will watch the video. n/t Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #25

I think you are being a little too sensitive about people's critiques. Blue_true Mar 2020 #27

It's not bothering me - Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #28

Very good--thank you n/t Lulu KC Mar 2020 #35

I just now read here on DU that Missouri thucythucy Mar 2020 #13

The growth in Missouri s included in the formula (since their numbers are in the mix). Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #17

This message was self-deleted by its author thucythucy Mar 2020 #18

Are these numbers also included? thucythucy Mar 2020 #30

You may, or may not, remember that I was one of the few on DU Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #41

good Demovictory9 Mar 2020 #22

CDC has slightly different data ... progree Mar 2020 #31

It doesn't really matter which source, as long as you pick one Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #36

"In a month, my formula has it dropping to about" progree Mar 2020 #40

It's a simple curve fitting polynomial. Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #42

Thanks for the info. It's been a couple decades since the last time I did curve-fitting. progree Mar 2020 #43

Oregons cases have been improving also which is where cases were first reported in the US yaesu Mar 2020 #32

What will work once a thing like this escapes into Warpy Mar 2020 #34

Thank you, let's hope it continues that trend relayerbob Mar 2020 #38

Assuming the math holds and there are no unexpected fuck ups due to Trump or his supporters cstanleytech Mar 2020 #39

Fauci and other medical experts MyMission Mar 2020 #44