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Ms. Toad

(38,648 posts)

11. Nothing I said suggested we were near the peak.

Sun Mar 29, 2020, 11:12 PM

Mar 2020

On the curve that fits from Feb 27 to today, the peak would be April 25. (Nearly a week later than the site you pointed me to.)

Remember, the entire goal was to flatten the curve. What that means is we will have a long, slow, steady hill to climb - in which the number of new cases will be relatively constant (instead of being based on the number of existing cases).

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Good news on the case growth trend. [View all] Ms. Toad Mar 2020 OP

Considering how hard it is to get tested, I wouldn't count my chickens just yet. LisaL Mar 2020 #1

You did read my last sentence, yes? n/t Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #2

I am just pointing out the obvious. LisaL Mar 2020 #3

According to today's curve, Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #7

Shouldn't caveats go first? n/t JustFiveMoreMinutes Mar 2020 #33

Nope. Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #37

I'm waiting for Florida's numbers to spike in a week or less Ilsa Mar 2020 #4

That is optimistic. 33taw Mar 2020 #5

Nothing I said suggested we were near the peak. Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #11

Death rate is probably the more important stat to track right now... JCMach1 Mar 2020 #6

The death rate will trail the new case rate by approximately 2 weeks. Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #14

Operative word is tested Lithos Mar 2020 #8

Yep. LisaL Mar 2020 #10

See China's curve on 2/12 & 2/13 Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #15

Like I pointed out last night, China took brutally drastic action, Blue_true Mar 2020 #19

It's also likely they aren't exactly honest about how many people actually died. LisaL Mar 2020 #20

Yes, I noticed that, compared to Italy. nt Blue_true Mar 2020 #24

Just reporting observations, Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #21

You points are very sound if big cities where Governors or Mayors Blue_true Mar 2020 #26

Have no issue with looking for hope in all this. Hoyt Mar 2020 #9

And me as well. eom sprinkleeninow Mar 2020 #29

Here's an interesting video that explains it. MyMission Mar 2020 #12

I've seen it before - it is very good! Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #16

I don't think that people are challenging your statement about the virus Blue_true Mar 2020 #23

Some are. It is those people I hope will watch the video. n/t Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #25

I think you are being a little too sensitive about people's critiques. Blue_true Mar 2020 #27

It's not bothering me - Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #28

Very good--thank you n/t Lulu KC Mar 2020 #35

I just now read here on DU that Missouri thucythucy Mar 2020 #13

The growth in Missouri s included in the formula (since their numbers are in the mix). Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #17

This message was self-deleted by its author thucythucy Mar 2020 #18

Are these numbers also included? thucythucy Mar 2020 #30

You may, or may not, remember that I was one of the few on DU Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #41

good Demovictory9 Mar 2020 #22

CDC has slightly different data ... progree Mar 2020 #31

It doesn't really matter which source, as long as you pick one Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #36

"In a month, my formula has it dropping to about" progree Mar 2020 #40

It's a simple curve fitting polynomial. Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #42

Thanks for the info. It's been a couple decades since the last time I did curve-fitting. progree Mar 2020 #43

Oregons cases have been improving also which is where cases were first reported in the US yaesu Mar 2020 #32

What will work once a thing like this escapes into Warpy Mar 2020 #34

Thank you, let's hope it continues that trend relayerbob Mar 2020 #38

Assuming the math holds and there are no unexpected fuck ups due to Trump or his supporters cstanleytech Mar 2020 #39

Fauci and other medical experts MyMission Mar 2020 #44