Good news on the case growth trend.

[Ms. Toad]

41. You may, or may not, remember that I was one of the few on DU

Warning about this back in January, and being taken to the woodshed over it as an alarmist. I have been a lone voice in the wilderness warning about this in most of my social circles from then through early March. I'm hardly the one who needs to hear the message about how serious this -or that we should be preparing for the worst. That's literally all I've been preaching for the last two months.

I'm using the same spreadsheet I used to predict when the death toll from COVID 19 would surpass that of SARS, as well as one that is a bit more sophisticated, and reporting on the trends I see when they have continued long enough for me to be relatively confident they are not just data blips. (As I did with China) And adding in the things that I can envision that might disrupt the trend (as i did with China).

As for your specific question about Tennessee, it's not clear. There were 208 cases yesterday (the 29th on the site I use. There have been 98 since they started counting for the 30th. So they are either all included, or partially included, since there are fewer the 115 in the count for the 30th.

As for the rest of the world -these observations are specific to the US. It isn't that the rest of the world is irrelevant, it's just that it's not what I'm tracking, at the moment.