General Discussion

MyMission

(2,010 posts)

44. Fauci and other medical experts

Mon Mar 30, 2020, 11:57 AM

Mar 2020

Have now advised and advocated a lock down through April, so that's 1 more month, plus. I tend to trust their analysis and therefore believe=hope that we will see numbers plateau and decline by then. But there are several variables that effect spread, and they may decide at end of April to give it 2 more weeks.

Having said that, a YouTube psychic I follow, for entertainment purposes only, predicted that by mother's day we would see or be told about decline enough to return to "normal".

Mathematically, while we will see reductions in some areas, like Washington state, we will and have begun to see surges and clusters in new areas. Those will need to play themselves out. All the folks attending mega churches this weekend or next will have 2 week incubation, will spread it some and hopefully self isolate and new spread will decline.

Basically there's a predictive model, but it's a crapshoot!

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Good news on the case growth trend. [View all] Ms. Toad Mar 2020 OP

Considering how hard it is to get tested, I wouldn't count my chickens just yet. LisaL Mar 2020 #1

You did read my last sentence, yes? n/t Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #2

I am just pointing out the obvious. LisaL Mar 2020 #3

According to today's curve, Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #7

Shouldn't caveats go first? n/t JustFiveMoreMinutes Mar 2020 #33

Nope. Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #37

I'm waiting for Florida's numbers to spike in a week or less Ilsa Mar 2020 #4

That is optimistic. 33taw Mar 2020 #5

Nothing I said suggested we were near the peak. Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #11

Death rate is probably the more important stat to track right now... JCMach1 Mar 2020 #6

The death rate will trail the new case rate by approximately 2 weeks. Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #14

Operative word is tested Lithos Mar 2020 #8

Yep. LisaL Mar 2020 #10

See China's curve on 2/12 & 2/13 Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #15

Like I pointed out last night, China took brutally drastic action, Blue_true Mar 2020 #19

It's also likely they aren't exactly honest about how many people actually died. LisaL Mar 2020 #20

Yes, I noticed that, compared to Italy. nt Blue_true Mar 2020 #24

Just reporting observations, Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #21

You points are very sound if big cities where Governors or Mayors Blue_true Mar 2020 #26

Have no issue with looking for hope in all this. Hoyt Mar 2020 #9

And me as well. eom sprinkleeninow Mar 2020 #29

Here's an interesting video that explains it. MyMission Mar 2020 #12

I've seen it before - it is very good! Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #16

I don't think that people are challenging your statement about the virus Blue_true Mar 2020 #23

Some are. It is those people I hope will watch the video. n/t Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #25

I think you are being a little too sensitive about people's critiques. Blue_true Mar 2020 #27

It's not bothering me - Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #28

Very good--thank you n/t Lulu KC Mar 2020 #35

I just now read here on DU that Missouri thucythucy Mar 2020 #13

The growth in Missouri s included in the formula (since their numbers are in the mix). Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #17

This message was self-deleted by its author thucythucy Mar 2020 #18

Are these numbers also included? thucythucy Mar 2020 #30

You may, or may not, remember that I was one of the few on DU Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #41

good Demovictory9 Mar 2020 #22

CDC has slightly different data ... progree Mar 2020 #31

It doesn't really matter which source, as long as you pick one Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #36

"In a month, my formula has it dropping to about" progree Mar 2020 #40

It's a simple curve fitting polynomial. Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #42

Thanks for the info. It's been a couple decades since the last time I did curve-fitting. progree Mar 2020 #43

Oregons cases have been improving also which is where cases were first reported in the US yaesu Mar 2020 #32

What will work once a thing like this escapes into Warpy Mar 2020 #34

Thank you, let's hope it continues that trend relayerbob Mar 2020 #38

Assuming the math holds and there are no unexpected fuck ups due to Trump or his supporters cstanleytech Mar 2020 #39

Fauci and other medical experts MyMission Mar 2020 #44