General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: What is there to stop the spread of the virus after the lockdown is lifted? [View all]Igel
(37,635 posts)They've shown that the virus after 3 hours on steel is viable.
They have not shown that it's present in sufficient quantities to infect a person. And that was starting with a pretty significant amount.
Everything after that could be viable virus, trace amounts or in large quantities, or dead virus. The tests weren't done to determine that.
It's pretty clear that we can quote Paracelsus here, the dose makes the poison. And it's coming a bit into focus what kind of dose of the virus is necessary to infect. So even if there is viable virions after 17 days (which is far from shown), the viral half-life might be such that you'd need a pile of it for it to stand more than a trivial chance of infecting a person. They'd usually get to this information by infecting people, but this bug's a bit too dangerous for that so they have to approach it a bit more circumspectly and circumstantially.
So we don't know enough to say a lot of things--reinfection? How dangerous is it, really, after an hour or a day? Can a person actually carry it on their person and transfer it doing typical activities to another? Until then, we run the risk of being naive optimists, all is perfect, or gloomy prophets of doom, we're all going to die. No need to be either. So let's not.
When we get to that bridge, we'll likely know enough information to be able to cross it. We're not going to be able to cross it before we get to it, in any event, so why stress out over it?