Growth rate for new cases nearly static for 4 days.

[Ms. Toad]

11. The curve I'm working with is the national curve

The more data, the more likely it is that it will be reasonably accurate. But you are correct that on a state-by-state basis states will reach their peak on different days - based on when the virus was seeded there, whether/when they implemented social distancing rules, whether they tend to have a lot of international travelers, how dense their population centers, etc.

I don't know how accurate - their modeling is significantlty more sophisticated then mine. I'm just plotting the data I have on a graph and fitting a curve to it. It has been pretty accurate for teh nest 1-3 days, and generally accurate for predicting big events, like the peak - for example my national peak has consistently matched the predicted national peak predicted by most models.