General Discussion

Ms. Toad

(38,422 posts)

40. That's possible -

Thu Apr 9, 2020, 11:02 AM

Apr 2020

When he new case growth rate all over was so stong, the decline in more populated areas that were shut down would outweigh any increase in less dense populations. And just like the beginning of the exponential curve in growth - the squashing benefit in the populated areas is less pronounced near the end of the squash - while the places not under lockdown may be picking up speed at a higher daily multiplication rate and - as you suggest - may be balancing it out.

Click here to purchase valentine hearts!

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

42 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Growth rate for new cases nearly static for 4 days. [View all] Ms. Toad Apr 2020 OP

good news Demovictory9 Apr 2020 #1

I wish it was still declining - Ms. Toad Apr 2020 #2

We still don't have enough testing to know who's infected. It's a disgrace! ffr Apr 2020 #3

You appear to be misunderstanding what I have posted. Ms. Toad Apr 2020 #5

Would a sub par per capita testing rate of symptomatic effect the multiplier any? Thx in advance uponit7771 Apr 2020 #6

Impossible to be absolutely certain without a lot more number crunching. Ms. Toad Apr 2020 #8

Could an infinite supply of test affect the smoothness of the curve also? My understanding is uponit7771 Apr 2020 #9

The challenge with local focus is that the data set Ms. Toad Apr 2020 #13

I agree, Analyst are not trying to hold numbers down but Trump is ... NO DOUBT ... holding numbers uponit7771 Apr 2020 #18

Fauci doesn't dictate what local states do, Ms. Toad Apr 2020 #20

It Doesn't Here In Illinois ProfessorGAC Apr 2020 #22

Agreed. Ms. Toad Apr 2020 #25

100% ... didn't think about this, Red Don can say all clear but it'll be local areas that give the uponit7771 Apr 2020 #35

Maybe a dumb question. Midnightwalk Apr 2020 #10

The curve I'm working with is the national curve Ms. Toad Apr 2020 #11

They should, imo, be not only testing more SheltieLover Apr 2020 #15

Agree. ananda Apr 2020 #16

Their preventing mass testing to hide the real numbers duforsure Apr 2020 #17

Texas test per million is a disgrace; Ohio is on the lower-end tests per million*, but not too bad greenjar_01 Apr 2020 #30

Yeah, but we are not testing much. Ohio ranks 40th for tests per capita krawhitham Apr 2020 #4

This isn't Ohio data - Ms. Toad Apr 2020 #7

Compared to national testing numbers FreeState Apr 2020 #12

I'll have to play with that. Ms. Toad Apr 2020 #14

Great info. It took a week to double. Much better than the 3 days it was Squinch Apr 2020 #32

The first step in proper data analysis is proper data collection. Yavin4 Apr 2020 #19

Absolutely - but there is nothing I can do about that Ms. Toad Apr 2020 #21

We're dealing with a president that only believes in narratives not saving lives. Yavin4 Apr 2020 #23

Fortunately, since local restrictions on movement are local decisions Ms. Toad Apr 2020 #27

We hardly test anyone, and therefore have NO IDEA how many Americans are infected... ElementaryPenguin Apr 2020 #24

BUT, is it safe to think that the fraction tested is relatively stable? Squinch Apr 2020 #28

When the first derivative is zero DBoon Apr 2020 #26

Yes. n/t Ms. Toad Apr 2020 #29

Look at the number of tests gibraltar72 Apr 2020 #31

Agreed. n/t Ms. Toad Apr 2020 #34

I'm having a difficult time wrapping my head around the numbers. NoMoreRepugs Apr 2020 #33

In terms of absolute numbers of infected - the lack of testing means the data Ms. Toad Apr 2020 #36

Appreciate your insight. Once there is a better handle on all the deaths both at home and in NoMoreRepugs Apr 2020 #41

Agreed - the toll will be staggering. Ms. Toad Apr 2020 #42

This is good but we really don't know for sure what the numbers are captain queeg Apr 2020 #37

Absolute numbers, no. Ms. Toad Apr 2020 #38

have to think the number stagnating te last 4 days...... Takket Apr 2020 #39

That's possible - Ms. Toad Apr 2020 #40