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Celerity

(53,443 posts)

9. millions of people will get it and never even know they had it until they are antibody tested

Reply to StTimofEdenRoc (Reply #7)

Sun Apr 12, 2020, 03:17 AM

Apr 2020

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Explain to me why I am wrong, please. [View all] StTimofEdenRoc Apr 2020 OP

the total cases in the US are MASSIVELY undercounted, so your death rate of 40% Celerity Apr 2020 #1

Well that is what I have been telling myself but .... StTimofEdenRoc Apr 2020 #5

Not everyone is testing at the same rate, so there's no accurate OnDoutside Apr 2020 #2

Trump wants to keep the numbers low so we're not testing uponit7771 Apr 2020 #3

The "recovered" number will come from people infected earlier than the deaths muriel_volestrangler Apr 2020 #4

This, plus they probably only count 'recovered' that they can prove are recovered ... mr_lebowski Apr 2020 #6

We are not tracking the tested positives ? StTimofEdenRoc Apr 2020 #8

Didn't say we're not tracking them, I'm not sure either way ... mr_lebowski Apr 2020 #14

the numbers are cumulative so this is based on weeks of data. StTimofEdenRoc Apr 2020 #7

millions of people will get it and never even know they had it until they are antibody tested Celerity Apr 2020 #9

True, but they are not members of the tested positive population the numbers are based on. StTimofEdenRoc Apr 2020 #10

if the lethality were 40%, you would potentially have tens of millions of deaths here in the EU, Celerity Apr 2020 #13

Okay so if I look at the world numbers StTimofEdenRoc Apr 2020 #16

because of a profound lack of testing Celerity Apr 2020 #22

WHO rate does not look accurate StTimofEdenRoc Apr 2020 #24

I fail to see what you are attempting to find out. I can but say one thing for certain. Celerity Apr 2020 #25

Been mr_lebowski Apr 2020 #17

I did have 'been' in there, but I cleaned up the sentence Celerity Apr 2020 #19

That was a DU glitch ... I used an improper character in teh title (less than sign) mr_lebowski Apr 2020 #20

because the vast majority of cases globally are not being tested at all, and when you take the Celerity Apr 2020 #23

Okay ... so, you're pulling a number out of thin air to enter into your calculations ... mr_lebowski Apr 2020 #29

Not out of thin air, I am showing what the 40% lethality figure of the OP Celerity Apr 2020 #30

Oh no ... you did not show the numbers, and that is my issue. mr_lebowski Apr 2020 #31

no, you are wrong, I was showing the absurdity of a 40% lethality rate when viral spread was Celerity Apr 2020 #33

You are taking what I said out of context ... mr_lebowski Apr 2020 #34

my last reply, because you are still missing the entire point, the huge numbers were based off a Celerity Apr 2020 #35

No offense, but it's you that's missing my point ... mr_lebowski Apr 2020 #36

oki, I see what you are saying, I should have said potentially, not already, I give you that point Celerity Apr 2020 #37

Thank you ... had you said 'eventually' rather than 'already' ... mr_lebowski Apr 2020 #40

I am also exhausted as well, I have been multitasking all day and night as it is downtime in the Celerity Apr 2020 #41

it was in the subject line, that is why I never noticed it, many misspeakings I have made on DU Celerity Apr 2020 #39

Yes, but it's different weeks muriel_volestrangler Apr 2020 #11

So there are more future recoveries then future deaths hiding in the time-lag. I hope you are right. StTimofEdenRoc Apr 2020 #12

If you look at the recovery numbers for other countries, or work them out for states muriel_volestrangler Apr 2020 #15

Exactly ... one country (or even state or county) might say you're 'recovered' if you're still alive mr_lebowski Apr 2020 #18

Thank you all, maybe now I can sleep. StTimofEdenRoc Apr 2020 #21

bottom line we have NO accurate data on who is infected and who has died from it anywhere in beachbumbob Apr 2020 #26

Bad dental hygiene? Wrong shoes? FBaggins Apr 2020 #27

People who are not tested are not part of the OP's calculations whatsoever ... mr_lebowski Apr 2020 #32

The OP claimed "The mild condition population contributes to the recovered count." FBaggins Apr 2020 #38

This message was self-deleted by its author FBaggins Apr 2020 #28