Explain to me why I am wrong, please.

[Celerity]

23. because the vast majority of cases globally are not being tested at all, and when you take the

Last edited Sun Apr 12, 2020, 05:48 AM - Edit history (1)

lethality rate of to 40% (which is just insanely overstated) the result would be 10's of millions dead.

The EU dwarfs the US as a whole, both in population (around 450m after the UK left) and economically, even after my fellow Brits stupidly voted to leave.

If just 20% of that 450m got COVID that yields 36 million dead IF it had a 40% lethality rate.

And in reality, EUROPE (the virus does not give a fuck about borders) as whole has around 750 million people

so at a 20% infection rate (which is super low from where it will end up) at 40% lethality equals 60 million europeans dead.

If the virus has a of 3.0, that means to hit herd immunity around 66.7% need to catch the virus

that would equal, again at 40% lethality, 200 million dead (for all of Europe), although you start to get into variables at that high a lethality rate and that level of viral penetration as well, as so many dying off can start to obstruct the dispersional pathways available to the virus.