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Igel

(37,720 posts)
32. No, it's not.
Sun Apr 19, 2020, 10:50 AM
Apr 2020

But a chain of assumptions gets you from widespread asymptomaticity (to coin a word) to faster herd immunity.

There are assumptions there--infection always triggers antibodies, the antibodies are the type that suppress infection, antibody-based immunity is long-lived.

Two of them are built into the hope that a vaccine will rescue us, however. But while we're discussing possibilities, we're discussing possibilities.

But, yes, it does mean you could catch it. It also means you might already have had it. It redefines risk for high-risk groups. It redefines risk for everybody.

But now I wonder if the positive test numbers skew to the aged. We know that the young catch it at the same rate and are rarely hospitalized and more rarely die. We know that people in their 20s-40s with it are less often hospitalized than the elderly, and while they can wind up in the ICU and on ventilators it happens at a much reduced rate and they're more likely to recover. I wonder if there's an age skew to the tests, so that the elderly who are infected are much more likely to show symptoms.

On edit:
https://www.indystar.com/story/news/health/2020/03/27/indiana-coronavirus-test-results-show-breakdown-ages-sex/2925854001/ gives me pause. Assuming that it spreads equally well in the population, look at how the tested population breaks down by age. (Keep in mind that the different groups aren't all equally represented in the population, so those percentages aren't the same as % of that age group infected and tested positive, and that the intervals aren't all the same: 1-19 is a far bigger portion of the population than 20-29, for instance, and 20-29 is a larger number than 70+).

Looks like if you're older you're more likely to be tested. Hypothesis: Asymptomatics and mild cases form a larger percentage of younger cohorts. Some age cohorts have had a lot more tests run on them than others.

Recommendations

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This is good news madville Apr 2020 #1
AH thanks for the good news! Yes that was their point - testing testing... cheers! jmg257 Apr 2020 #2
Yes, I've been following these stories as well and feel very hopeful janterry Apr 2020 #4
Is herd immunity a real thing? Buckeyeblue Apr 2020 #25
Yes but it's misconstrued. Igel Apr 2020 #28
Got it. Buckeyeblue Apr 2020 #34
Think about tuberculosis Mossfern Apr 2020 #29
But we aren't immune to TB. We are just effective in treating it. Right? Buckeyeblue Apr 2020 #33
No and yes with an asterisk grantcart Apr 2020 #39
It's a little too soon to have a party DarleenMB Apr 2020 #35
And even if it doesn't kill you TexasBushwhacker Apr 2020 #41
Is this it? Yonnie3 Apr 2020 #3
And yet... paleotn Apr 2020 #12
It's not a "nursing home," as the OP said, Yonnie3 Apr 2020 #15
I know that. I called it a hot spot... paleotn Apr 2020 #19
I wasn't referring to you when I mentioned "nursing home" Yonnie3 Apr 2020 #22
No worries. paleotn Apr 2020 #24
This isn't the first time such a sampling's been done. Igel Apr 2020 #30
I'm seeing reports of false negatives not false positives rainin Apr 2020 #36
Thank you. This is NOT good news. intheflow Apr 2020 #18
Because if 36% of us will get it and not notice, Igel Apr 2020 #31
We don't know this yet. We only know they aren't showing symptoms right now rainin Apr 2020 #38
I just don't trust these results yet. It might be good news captain queeg Apr 2020 #5
Yeah, I read a suggestion Lindsay Apr 2020 #6
It is insane to talk about reopening anything when we don't even have widespread reliable testing. tanyev Apr 2020 #17
Also, asymptomatic people can still pass it along dawg day Apr 2020 #8
+1 rampartc Apr 2020 #10
Latency rather than immunity Bad Thoughts Apr 2020 #11
Asymptomatic is not the same as herd immunity. This is not good news. intheflow Apr 2020 #21
No, it's not. Igel Apr 2020 #32
wouldn't it be a kicker if..... getagrip_already Apr 2020 #7
That thought has crossed my mind captain queeg Apr 2020 #37
Just to point out... The Pine Street Inn is not a nursing home. Croney Apr 2020 #9
Cheers thanks for the info! Nt jmg257 Apr 2020 #26
Those numbers would make me doubt Chainfire Apr 2020 #13
+1 grantcart Apr 2020 #40
yup.. lapfog_1 Apr 2020 #14
It's Doctor John! yellowdogintexas Apr 2020 #23
Another possible thought lonely bird Apr 2020 #16
There was also a testing at a Boston homeless ALBliberal Apr 2020 #20
We also know there are at least 2 strains of the virus, one apparently less severe. CaptainTruth Apr 2020 #27
That sounds like what I read about a homeless shelter in Boston, not nursing home. LizBeth Apr 2020 #42
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