WaPo: Why Joe Biden needs Elizabeth Warren

[thesquanderer]

25. I think that 538 page doesn't mean what you think it does.

A *single* poll shows that 9 point advantage.

It doesn't matter that it's the most recent one, a single recent poll is not as good as an aggregate of recent polls. So if you're going to direct to that 9 point lead in the most recent poll, you have to do it at least in the context of the fact that the other polls this month (on that same page) show a zero point lead and a 3 point lead (with the latter being from the most highly rated of the polls). So it would be a mistake to conclude Biden is actually leading by 9 points based on that page.

re:

All of Clinton's states plus Florida and North Carolina gets to 276

227+29+15 = 271, not 276.

All of Clinton's states plus Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania comes to 273.

Either combination hits 270 and wins. Which path do you think will be easier to achieve? I would say the latter, because that's where the margins were most razor thin last time.