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USALiberal

(10,877 posts) Thu Apr 30, 2020, 07:50 PM Apr 2020

What am I missing? IMHE (University of Washington) Predicts 72,433 total deaths on August 4th 2020 [View all]

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

3rd Graph

Total deaths
72,433
COVID-19 deaths projected by August 4, 2020

There are 63,800 now (WorldoMeters.com)

So they predict only 8,600 more deaths in the next 95 days. So an average of 90 more per day!

These people are much smarter than me so I am confused!

50 replies

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What am I missing? IMHE (University of Washington) Predicts 72,433 total deaths on August 4th 2020 [View all] USALiberal Apr 2020 OP

They have mathematical models and feed data into them, and get the answers Steelrolled Apr 2020 #1

I'd say 2. They have no idea how people are going to act bullimiami Apr 2020 #6

You are right... assumption on how people conform to Laura PourMeADrink May 2020 #42

We'll Call It A 1.2 ProfessorGAC Apr 2020 #7

What counts is Excess Deaths, not lies like Florida under-count by policy. . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2020 #12

Some States Are Better Than Others ProfessorGAC Apr 2020 #20

The lower value of their range is 59,343 muriel_volestrangler May 2020 #46

Reinforces My Point ProfessorGAC May 2020 #48

The models are crapshoots Is that one still current? gibraltar72 Apr 2020 #2

Link is as of today. nt USALiberal Apr 2020 #3

I wonder if they were modeling social distancing. I've seen various scenarios. We're going gibraltar72 Apr 2020 #5

LOL, both of us!! nt USALiberal Apr 2020 #8

They Moved It Up Because Of Early Reopenings ProfessorGAC Apr 2020 #9

We'll be lucky if there aren't 30,000 more deaths in May alone greenjar_01 Apr 2020 #14

No Argument From Me ProfessorGAC Apr 2020 #18

They didn't check the "insane President" box in the settings rickford66 Apr 2020 #4

Yep. Blue_true Apr 2020 #34

yes NewJeffCT May 2020 #37

+1, it even that has multiple levels uponit7771 May 2020 #43

it's a prediction and nothing more than that beachbumbob Apr 2020 #10

Good grief, that projection is clearly wrong! Buckeye_Democrat Apr 2020 #11

We'll be over 75,000 by the end of next week greenjar_01 Apr 2020 #13

There will be over 70,000 by next week this time n/t malaise Apr 2020 #15

I agree! nt USALiberal Apr 2020 #16

Here's another model ramblin_dave Apr 2020 #17

Thanks for the link! nt USALiberal Apr 2020 #19

1.1 MILLION DEAD without current interventions? Fiendish Thingy Apr 2020 #22

I'm in Iowa. IHME model says 300 dead. This one suggests 10,000+. Someone is going to bullwinkle428 Apr 2020 #31

Their model may be assuming stay home restrictions remain in effect and are followed nt Fiendish Thingy Apr 2020 #21

something to consider about model predictions mike_c Apr 2020 #23

Interesting! Thanks for the info! nt USALiberal Apr 2020 #24

We will reach that number before May 15. MineralMan Apr 2020 #25

The IHME model is crap. Always has been, always will be. Epidemiologists are on Squinch Apr 2020 #26

A week ago they were predicting 60,000 deaths by that date. Crunchy Frog Apr 2020 #27

Next week they'll "revise" it again D_Master81 Apr 2020 #28

They are projecting no new deaths after July 6. Ms. Toad Apr 2020 #29

And very few in June. Nt USALiberal Apr 2020 #30

The first wave BGBD Apr 2020 #32

Seems like they have been consistently way off. Blue_true Apr 2020 #33

Seems like a non-sense estimate to me. Will probably be over twice that. mackdaddy May 2020 #35

You are correct! nt USALiberal May 2020 #36

You are correct! Nt USALiberal May 2020 #38

Snarky.... Might be true if every Gov. stops reporting like FL is now? Brainfodder May 2020 #39

90-100 thousand. sarcasmo May 2020 #40

i believe that is the group that was saying about 60k two weeks ago......... Takket May 2020 #41

That Prediction, Sir The Magistrate May 2020 #44

No, it's their mean prediction after April 27th, with current conditions muriel_volestrangler May 2020 #45

Then They Fucked Up, Sir The Magistrate May 2020 #47

Biden and all the other Democrats need to start focusing on excess deaths and all-out accuse Trump Celerity May 2020 #49

CDC is actually using Carnegie-Mellon's model DeminPennswoods May 2020 #50