General Discussion

ProfessorGAC

(76,743 posts)

20. Some States Are Better Than Others

Thu Apr 30, 2020, 08:25 PM

Apr 2020

No doubt there's cheating on the numbers in some states.
I have no reason to doubt IL, NY, NJ, or CA. Even Ohio seems on the up & up, and Michigan is too awful for suppression. If one was going to lie with the numbers, they would have done better than the bad reports their issuing.
I do like the unexpected death rate comparison. Not as a sole value, but as a good pressure test of other projections.

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What am I missing? IMHE (University of Washington) Predicts 72,433 total deaths on August 4th 2020 [View all] USALiberal Apr 2020 OP

They have mathematical models and feed data into them, and get the answers Steelrolled Apr 2020 #1

I'd say 2. They have no idea how people are going to act bullimiami Apr 2020 #6

You are right... assumption on how people conform to Laura PourMeADrink May 2020 #42

We'll Call It A 1.2 ProfessorGAC Apr 2020 #7

What counts is Excess Deaths, not lies like Florida under-count by policy. . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2020 #12

Some States Are Better Than Others ProfessorGAC Apr 2020 #20

The lower value of their range is 59,343 muriel_volestrangler May 2020 #46

Reinforces My Point ProfessorGAC May 2020 #48

The models are crapshoots Is that one still current? gibraltar72 Apr 2020 #2

Link is as of today. nt USALiberal Apr 2020 #3

I wonder if they were modeling social distancing. I've seen various scenarios. We're going gibraltar72 Apr 2020 #5

LOL, both of us!! nt USALiberal Apr 2020 #8

They Moved It Up Because Of Early Reopenings ProfessorGAC Apr 2020 #9

We'll be lucky if there aren't 30,000 more deaths in May alone greenjar_01 Apr 2020 #14

No Argument From Me ProfessorGAC Apr 2020 #18

They didn't check the "insane President" box in the settings rickford66 Apr 2020 #4

Yep. Blue_true Apr 2020 #34

yes NewJeffCT May 2020 #37

+1, it even that has multiple levels uponit7771 May 2020 #43

it's a prediction and nothing more than that beachbumbob Apr 2020 #10

Good grief, that projection is clearly wrong! Buckeye_Democrat Apr 2020 #11

We'll be over 75,000 by the end of next week greenjar_01 Apr 2020 #13

There will be over 70,000 by next week this time n/t malaise Apr 2020 #15

I agree! nt USALiberal Apr 2020 #16

Here's another model ramblin_dave Apr 2020 #17

Thanks for the link! nt USALiberal Apr 2020 #19

1.1 MILLION DEAD without current interventions? Fiendish Thingy Apr 2020 #22

I'm in Iowa. IHME model says 300 dead. This one suggests 10,000+. Someone is going to bullwinkle428 Apr 2020 #31

Their model may be assuming stay home restrictions remain in effect and are followed nt Fiendish Thingy Apr 2020 #21

something to consider about model predictions mike_c Apr 2020 #23

Interesting! Thanks for the info! nt USALiberal Apr 2020 #24

We will reach that number before May 15. MineralMan Apr 2020 #25

The IHME model is crap. Always has been, always will be. Epidemiologists are on Squinch Apr 2020 #26

A week ago they were predicting 60,000 deaths by that date. Crunchy Frog Apr 2020 #27

Next week they'll "revise" it again D_Master81 Apr 2020 #28

They are projecting no new deaths after July 6. Ms. Toad Apr 2020 #29

And very few in June. Nt USALiberal Apr 2020 #30

The first wave BGBD Apr 2020 #32

Seems like they have been consistently way off. Blue_true Apr 2020 #33

Seems like a non-sense estimate to me. Will probably be over twice that. mackdaddy May 2020 #35

You are correct! nt USALiberal May 2020 #36

You are correct! Nt USALiberal May 2020 #38

Snarky.... Might be true if every Gov. stops reporting like FL is now? Brainfodder May 2020 #39

90-100 thousand. sarcasmo May 2020 #40

i believe that is the group that was saying about 60k two weeks ago......... Takket May 2020 #41

That Prediction, Sir The Magistrate May 2020 #44

No, it's their mean prediction after April 27th, with current conditions muriel_volestrangler May 2020 #45

Then They Fucked Up, Sir The Magistrate May 2020 #47

Biden and all the other Democrats need to start focusing on excess deaths and all-out accuse Trump Celerity May 2020 #49

CDC is actually using Carnegie-Mellon's model DeminPennswoods May 2020 #50