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Caliman73

(11,767 posts)

24. Sounds kind of like this...

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Wed May 6, 2020, 01:09 PM

May 2020

It is ridiculous to assume that deaths will magically cap out at 350,000 with the lifting of restrictions. The infection rate will sky rocket, the death rate will skyrocket AND finally, jobs will be lost because workers and consumers will be DEAD.

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I might only be a plebeian but I find this Wharton model dubious [View all] DemocratSinceBirth May 2020 OP

Why? Loki Liesmith May 2020 #1

Job losses, there's no consumer presure there's not a country who's shut down who have had uponit7771 May 2020 #5

The model assumes if everything magically reopens the DemocratSinceBirth May 2020 #8

Does it assume that though? Loki Liesmith May 2020 #12

Without full accurate testing, a vaccine and a cure there are no worthy predictions. BSdetect May 2020 #2

well if we had all that, predictions would be much easier.... unblock May 2020 #6

yes, i don't think scenario 3 takes into account how people would react to 350,000 deaths unblock May 2020 #3

+1, and this death is horrible. Laying in the bed suffocating alone while someone shows your face in uponit7771 May 2020 #7

Everybody's risk tolerance is different. DemocratSinceBirth May 2020 #11

And I think that 350,000 deaths is wildly optimistic if it supposes a return to "normal" behavior. Salviati May 2020 #14

not even clear what that number is supposed to represent unblock May 2020 #17

Yeah, no. Baitball Blogger May 2020 #4

"By end of June"? And how many in July, August, September?? lostnfound May 2020 #9

I'm not sure the reporting entirely matches the model C_U_L8R May 2020 #10

The choice isn't between economic harm or a high body count... Salviati May 2020 #13

There's data that people aren't close to resuming their pre COVID-19 lives. DemocratSinceBirth May 2020 #16

K&R, This is assuming people would flock back to work or flock back to shopping. Bad assumption ... uponit7771 May 2020 #15

"By end of June" Progressive dog May 2020 #18

Notice in scenario #2, that's 162,000 additional deaths, for a total sinkingfeeling May 2020 #19

Yes and magically, in scenario 3 only 350k people. Caliman73 May 2020 #25

Scenario #3 must be based Chainfire May 2020 #20

There is a gym, spa and pool at my apartment complex. It's closed DemocratSinceBirth May 2020 #22

i joined you ...there are some idiotic assumptions in that model Fresh_Start May 2020 #21

if you ask 1000 Republicans, would they trade an additional 1 death per 1750 people (the Celerity May 2020 #23

Sounds kind of like this... Caliman73 May 2020 #24

500,000 jobs lost? Not a chance it could be that low in Scenario #3. zonemaster May 2020 #26