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Celerity

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32. Taking the CDC raw data up until the week ending May, 2, 2020, then extrapolating out

Thu May 7, 2020, 11:05 PM

May 2020

for the new deaths since then, your age cohort (55 to 64, which is around 43 million people) has had a death rate of 1 death per every 4533 people as of right now. As you are 59, it probably is less than 1 per 5500 or even 1 per 6000 for your exact age (I do not have enough deep data to give you an exact answer for a 59yo, sorry)

Those are the death rates per the total population age cohort, NOT the lethality rate if you actually are exposed to the virus.

More info on all age cohorts (and source links) here

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=13405885

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Some good info from an Epidemiologist and colleague of an acquaintance of mine. [View all] imavoter May 2020 OP

Also, there is a Survival Rate Calculator now online dixiegrrrrl May 2020 #1

It says I have a 5.04% chance of dying from it lunatica May 2020 #2

The risk factors could be tweaked a bit dixiegrrrrl May 2020 #9

Yes, I have had hypertension but it is under control so I marked no csziggy May 2020 #19

Just to be clear, the page indicates your risk for survival IF you get it dixiegrrrrl May 2020 #41

Whoops - yes, you are right csziggy May 2020 #42

I got the same...I'm 64 LeftInTX May 2020 #16

Says my risk of death is 63.34%. LuckyCharms May 2020 #4

Yikes!!!!! I'm 92%! Solomon May 2020 #24

Don't worry. LuckyCharms May 2020 #30

+1 CountAllVotes May 2020 #7

He really digs deep into the virus exposure X time aspect. Mike 03 May 2020 #3

Yes. This information is critically important to understanding transmission stopdiggin May 2020 #8

Fauci likely would cover that if he wan't being muzzled half the time he talks. nt Blue_true May 2020 #28

best I can do with Fauci these days stopdiggin May 2020 #35

This is fascinating leftieNanner May 2020 #5

Thank you so much for posting that. PoindexterOglethorpe May 2020 #6

I'm not sure the article gave you a break from your wearisome practices. LAS14 May 2020 #12

It does point out that far and away the vast majority of transmissions PoindexterOglethorpe May 2020 #13

Not sure about your point here. LAS14 May 2020 #20

My point is that the people who think they need to sanitize everything are wrong. PoindexterOglethorpe May 2020 #26

Could you give a quote from the article? LAS14 May 2020 #27

I'll try these. PoindexterOglethorpe May 2020 #33

I don't see any info about surface transmission in either quote. nt LAS14 May 2020 #34

Infection from particles on surfaces is a lot more controllable than the aerosol route. Blue_true May 2020 #29

Mail carriers. LAS14 May 2020 #22

I'm turning 60 this year so I'm right between 2 age groups. ARPad95 May 2020 #10

Keep in mind those estimated chances are based on if you actually get it and PoindexterOglethorpe May 2020 #14

My husband will be 62 this year and he's only at 5% risk of dying because he doesn't have any ARPad95 May 2020 #18

Even in non Covid-19 circumstances, PoindexterOglethorpe May 2020 #25

Taking the CDC raw data up until the week ending May, 2, 2020, then extrapolating out Celerity May 2020 #32

THANKS!!! This is absolutely the best article I've read during this whole COVID-19 time!!! nt LAS14 May 2020 #11

Regarding health conditions do they mean ones out of control EllieBC May 2020 #15

Fascinating!! LeftInTX May 2020 #17

Would you ask your acquaintance to pass on a request for an equally illuminating... LAS14 May 2020 #21

I'll pass it on. imavoter May 2020 #31

Ok, I asked. imavoter May 2020 #36

Thanks! nt LAS14 May 2020 #43

Kicked and bookmarked! smirkymonkey May 2020 #23

Gives me a 31.72% chance of dying from it. mnhtnbb May 2020 #37

Looks like the whole thing is dedicated to Covid19 imavoter May 2020 #38

**update** I found one about surfaces imavoter May 2020 #39

Worst case scenario "Indoors with closely spaced people", beaches are safer than dining , I knew it! Baclava May 2020 #40