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progree

(10,864 posts)
31. Actually with reinvested dividends it took S&P 500 16 years to recover from Great Depression
Wed May 13, 2020, 02:34 AM
May 2020

Last edited Wed May 13, 2020, 03:28 AM - Edit history (1)

For example, a buy and hold equity investor with $143.81 at the end of 1928 had $166.15 at the end of 1944 (16 years later), and $1038.47 at the end of 1955.

The "safe" 3 month T-bill and the Treasury bond investor had $134.45 and $215.65 respectively at the end of 1955.

http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html

His listing of all current data sets he has: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datacurrent.html
Excel spreadsheet: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/histretSP.xls

One can always focus on the very worst case. What I do is go by the monte carlo multi-thousands of simulations where, for example, in retirement one withdraws 4% of their balance to meet their spending needs in the first year of retirement, and that withdrawal dollar amount increases at the rate of inflation each year after. The investors who started out and maintained mostly equities, like 80-20 equities-fixed income have far less chance of running out of money in retirement than do mostly fixed income investors, and all-cash investors (T-bills) are hopeless.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/11211712#post4

If one doesn't need any of their retirement savings in retirement, yeah, it doesn't matter what the heck one invests their money in. But for most who aren't so lucky, then the risk of keeping up with inflation and not running out during retirement is the risk that matters.

ALL down: elleng May 2020 #1
trump is still president spanone May 2020 #2
Maybe some company that makes yachts had to close for Covid? Takket May 2020 #3
Who knows? CountAllVotes May 2020 #4
It's bad, but if you're in the market, you should know not to watch daily ups and downs Bucky May 2020 #5
This chart gives a sense of what personal longterm investments should look like Bucky May 2020 #10
Thanks for the graph. Here's S&P 500 from 1928 on a logarithmic scale for a different kind of view progree May 2020 #17
How many people have 27 years to get their nose back to the waterline? Blue_true May 2020 #23
That's part of what's making me nervous about this market. Bucky May 2020 #26
If you are in your fifties maybe you should go to the sidelines. Blue_true May 2020 #27
I kind of did that already... Bucky May 2020 #28
Actually with reinvested dividends it took S&P 500 16 years to recover from Great Depression progree May 2020 #31
You make sound points. The main issue is how quickly a person will need retirement money and how Blue_true May 2020 #35
Actually, I had in mind the people who need their retirement money, not well-off people progree May 2020 #38
Again, it depends upon what a person has in retirement funds. Blue_true May 2020 #39
If a person needs much more than 4%/year withdrawal, all simulations show they are screwed (will progree May 2020 #40
That's one reason I don't like logarithmic scales for graphs Bucky May 2020 #25
I struggle a lot with which view is the more distorted one - linear or logarithmic progree May 2020 #32
It's the logarithmic scale that allows dips, or growth, to look the same whatever the date muriel_volestrangler May 2020 #33
I think the peak to trough drop in the Dow index was 89%, meaning $100 became $11, or progree May 2020 #34
Mmm, maybe the printers broke at the FED? Rstrstx May 2020 #6
Market was holding its own, until about 1p - when it collapsed 1.89%, empedocles May 2020 #7
U.S. Stocks Slump After Fauci, Fed Set Somber Tone: Markets Wrap Jim__ May 2020 #8
I did wonder about that malaise May 2020 #11
tRUMP will blame bluestarone May 2020 #9
***FAUCI !!! *** I've been saying for nearly 3 weeks Trump and ManureChin have been lying about uponit7771 May 2020 #12
THIS malaise May 2020 #13
I think the extended LA county stay-at-home order was a market mover as well Shermann May 2020 #14
True malaise May 2020 #15
June WTI futures contracts end Thursday MoonlitKnight May 2020 #16
The market is worried JmAln May 2020 #18
Interesting - at noon −497.38 malaise May 2020 #36
Fauci pretty much confirmed we're not re-opening anytime soon. tinrobot May 2020 #19
It might be more about several of the early reopening states ticking up in cases? herding cats May 2020 #29
The market will remain volatile until the COVID numbers drop or a promising drug or vaccine drops Algernon Moncrieff May 2020 #20
That's not what the Con and his goons are saying malaise May 2020 #37
Today was a minor move given the times we are in. Steelrolled May 2020 #21
Fleecing the unsuspecting again. Blue_true May 2020 #22
Stocks are way way way way overvalued Johnny2X2X May 2020 #24
Dumbasses gotta dumbass. Hugin May 2020 #30
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