Total insanity/stupidity in Wisconsin

[Bernardo de La Paz]

25. Hard to know. If we make simplifying assumptions we can do some arithmetic:

R0 for Covid-19 is 3.8 to 8.9. If we assume 4 near the low end, each infected person infects 4 people. As a guess maybe they are generally infected by day 5, but some sooner, so let's assume they all get infected on day 5.

Let's further assume that once a member of the general population is infected the R0 is lower because 80% are self-isolating, something like 1.5, which I think means that there is a 50% chance they infect someone else.

Wisconsin has 5,000+ detected active cases, a rate of about 1 per 1,000 people. Assume that 5 times as many are not detected., so 5 per 1,000.

If 3% of the population goes out to bars and restaurants and stores and theatres and salons and other social settings, that is 150,000 people.

So that's about 5 x 150 = 750 presumed actives who will infect about 4 each so 3,000 new cases on day 5, of which about 600 will be detected within by about say 10 days after (3-7 days to see symptoms, 3 days round trip for results).

Then on day 10, about another 50% = 1.5 x 3000 = 4500 cases of which about 900 will be detected say 10 days after.

So there could be about 1500 new cases detected (active), increasing case load by about 20% in 15 days, over and above the already existing increase (about 300 cases per day). So 100 extra per day soon, perhaps.

But it could be much worse. The percentage going out could be higher than 3%, could be 15%. R0 might be higher. There might be a higher number of undetected but infectious cases.

If we assume 15% go out a couple of times or more for various reasons in the next few days, R0 = 6, and R0 = 2 for general population, and 10x actual versus detected cases, then we get 750 K covidiots, 7,500 presumed actives infecting 6 each = 45,000 new cases on day 5 of which about 4,500 would be detected with in 10 days. Then on day 10 another 90,000 new cases of which about 9,000 would be detected in 15 days, adding 13,500 to the detected cases. So the number of cases might double in 10-12 days.

Lots of assumptions and some guesses.