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ProfessorGAC

(77,057 posts)

32. The EC Is A Linked Outcome

Thu May 14, 2020, 07:49 PM

May 2020

Given a large enough margin, the EC will follow.
The 2 oddities recently are just that. Very tight popular vote margin, so the EC aberrated.
Get the lead up 3 million (6 Million vote win). The plausible ways of that happening obviate the EC countering the popular vote. (For instance, Biden isn't getting 2 million more votes in CA, NY, & IL gaining no EC seats. The probability of gaining that greater fraction of votes in states easily won in 2016 is a 1 or 2%. So, there's a 1 in 220,000 chance of that outcome.
Far more likely is that extra 3 million votes comes from states that were close & went Obama in '08 & '12.
You pretty cavalierly tossed out that 30 million vote number.
Could you provide any notion of the probability of that actually happening? What scenarios allow a 30 million vote wipeout and an EC loss? What assumptive probability would we assign to such a cosmic event? Or, the likelihoods of each of the series of events?
Your post does, IN FACT, have the ring of "votes don't matter" sirens. It doesn't take imagination to see that.

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I'm thinking Biden will have to win by 10 million votes [View all] bluestarone May 2020 OP

Nah. Loki Liesmith May 2020 #1

I think 5 million is that number I heard. jimfields33 May 2020 #2

Maybe closer but Hillary won by 4 million i believe bluestarone May 2020 #4

I totally get that. Hillary was 2 million I believe. jimfields33 May 2020 #7

Just under 3 million, actually. nt tblue37 May 2020 #18

TY so maybe 6 million will do it! bluestarone May 2020 #22

5 to 6 Million ProfessorGAC May 2020 #11

4 million likely gives Biden a victory. But 5 million would be nice. nt Blue_true May 2020 #28

As long as he gets the 270 votes that matter. J_William_Ryan May 2020 #3

yea that even worries me! bluestarone May 2020 #6

Total number in the popular vote nationwide means diddly squat. mwooldri May 2020 #5

yep bluestarone May 2020 #8

He has to get 270 electoral college votes(*) PoliticAverse May 2020 #9

Need to vote as if he needs 200 million Under The Radar May 2020 #10

2 points is the inflection point. DemocratSinceBirth May 2020 #12

He needs to win by at least 7%. That is in votes cast, not votes counted. Midnight Writer May 2020 #13

And here I've always thought that it was the votes that were counted that are important. Or maybe abqtommy May 2020 #15

He's assuming at least some cast for Biden won't get counted, so Biden needs a well padded tblue37 May 2020 #20

I hope 20 million margin and 400 electoral votes beachbumbob May 2020 #14

I like your plan! leftieNanner May 2020 #16

Wow i like your thinking here! bluestarone May 2020 #17

THIS !!!! Crush em uponit7771 May 2020 #19

I think that you are way wrong. Blue_true May 2020 #21

Yea bluestarone May 2020 #24

So out of 66 +63 million votes cast in the last presidential election cycle, Biden, up by a 8% ... SWBTATTReg May 2020 #23

If fair and square Biden will kick ass!! But bluestarone May 2020 #26

Exactly! Be safe! SWBTATTReg May 2020 #30

The popular vote matter so little to me. 270+ EC votes is that matters. aikoaiko May 2020 #25

AGREE! bluestarone May 2020 #27

That Helps GOTV? ProfessorGAC May 2020 #29

Well, that's imaginative. aikoaiko May 2020 #31

The EC Is A Linked Outcome ProfessorGAC May 2020 #32

impossible for biden to get 30 million more votes than trump and NOT win the EC vote count beachbumbob May 2020 #33

I have a feeling Trump and the GOP will win in a landslide Eid Ma Clack Shaw May 2020 #34