Chuck Todd is flabbergasted that the polling has stratified so early in the process....

[aaaaaa5a]

21. I agree with your posts

The Presidential map changed post civil rights.

There was a brief exception in 1976 because Carter was (at the time) considered an old era southern Democrat. But outside of that, the alignment was growing and was firmly put in place by the end of the Reagan era. 1992 and 1996 were aberrations because we had a strong 3rd party candidate that divided the GOP vote. This allowed us to carry states we never would have won in a straight 2 party race. I love Bill Clinton, but he never once won 50% of the vote (1992-43%, 1996-49%) In the year 2000, even with a southerner on top of the ticket, without a strong 3rd party challenge, the realignment was set.


This "realignment" helped the GOP put an electoral stranglehold on the Presidency.

From 1968 to 1992, the GOP won 5 of 6 Presidential elections. And the only Democratic win was razor thin (Carter 49.5%/Ford 49%-1976). Many of the GOP wins were blowouts. However because of the demographic changes to the country, the expansion of suburbs, and more well educated Northeast residents moving south, we are now entering an era where we will have an advantage. This is why Virginia is now competitive. North Carolina is marginally competitive. And Sshh... don't tell anybody, but South Carolina isn't as far away as we think. (Obama had 22% of the white vote in S.C. in 2008. Thats a good number for the traditional south.) Texas will be in play in 2020.

Very quietly since 1992, Democrats have now won the popular vote in 4 of the last 5 elections. And in 2004, Bush won the popular vote narrowly, 51%/48%. The trend lines are clear. We are entering an era where Democrats will enjoy the electoral college advantage for a generation the way the Republicans did a generation ago.