General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Updated - Reuters: New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says [View all]BGBD
(3,282 posts)but another holds that Spanish flu rapidly evolved into a much less deadly disease after the peak of the last wave.
I'm not sure that a vaccine has ever been able to stop a pandemic in all of history. Vaccines are really great at ending diseases that are chronic to civilizations. Polio, smallpox, measles, etc. They are helpful with reducing the severity of seasonal viruses like flu, but they haven't been able to stop them or even come close. We've never had a coronavirus vaccine, so hard to say what that will do.
However, I don't believe any pandemic from a novel virus has ever been brought under control by a vaccine. Instead they burn themselves out either because the virus evolves into a less deadly version and deadlier strains are less able to spread because of killing hosts, people take steps to reduce the spread by distancing, or a combination of both.
I'm kind of leaning toward expecting that to happen again this time. We will develop a vaccine, but it will come as the virus is already waning or the pandemic will come to and end before a vaccine is finished.
I don't expect a vaccine to be completed before the end of this year, maybe by this time next year.