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BGBD

(3,282 posts)
51. That's one theory
Sun May 31, 2020, 11:50 PM
May 2020

but another holds that Spanish flu rapidly evolved into a much less deadly disease after the peak of the last wave.

I'm not sure that a vaccine has ever been able to stop a pandemic in all of history. Vaccines are really great at ending diseases that are chronic to civilizations. Polio, smallpox, measles, etc. They are helpful with reducing the severity of seasonal viruses like flu, but they haven't been able to stop them or even come close. We've never had a coronavirus vaccine, so hard to say what that will do.

However, I don't believe any pandemic from a novel virus has ever been brought under control by a vaccine. Instead they burn themselves out either because the virus evolves into a less deadly version and deadlier strains are less able to spread because of killing hosts, people take steps to reduce the spread by distancing, or a combination of both.

I'm kind of leaning toward expecting that to happen again this time. We will develop a vaccine, but it will come as the virus is already waning or the pandemic will come to and end before a vaccine is finished.

I don't expect a vaccine to be completed before the end of this year, maybe by this time next year.

i hope this is valid Evergreen Emerald May 2020 #1
But it's still killing Americans pretty well jpak May 2020 #2
I don't disagree. phylny May 2020 #6
Great if true really really skeptical, this doctor is talking about viral load not a mutated virus uponit7771 May 2020 #3
Lots of people in Italy appear to be wearing mask in public. Blue_true May 2020 #41
This too, where I'm at around 50% of the people are wearing masks and that's pretty good uponit7771 May 2020 #48
Today there were 75 dead Italians who might argue differently RAB910 May 2020 #4
Could be. phylny May 2020 #5
this a complete load of crap stopdiggin May 2020 #7
What do you think this doctor's motivation is? phylny May 2020 #11
Well he is quoted as suggesting they need to open the country. LisaL May 2020 #27
Perhaps. Maybe the other doctor quoted is as well. phylny May 2020 #30
don't care stopdiggin May 2020 #32
I must have misunderstood. phylny May 2020 #33
I wasn't referring to Trump stopdiggin May 2020 #34
Most Italians that I see in public pictures are wearing masks. Blue_true May 2020 #42
The virus has been shown to mutate LeftInTX Jun 2020 #54
there are more mutations than that stopdiggin Jun 2020 #62
some good news Demovictory9 May 2020 #8
It's not "news", it's one doctor's opinion. nt. Mariana May 2020 #12
Two doctors, if you read the article. phylny May 2020 #17
Where did you get your MD? BannonsLiver May 2020 #18
oh... i didn't know drumpf had a twin brother that was a doctor in italy........ Takket May 2020 #9
I found the article interesting. phylny May 2020 #10
There's been a weird anti science bent from some here since it started BannonsLiver May 2020 #19
I'm not anti-science. phylny May 2020 #20
No, not you BannonsLiver May 2020 #22
Thanks. I guess I'm a bit thin-skinned. phylny May 2020 #23
+1 Tree-Hugger Jun 2020 #65
We are headed for a real ass-kicking once the second wave piles on. Blue_true May 2020 #43
Does that make sense? Rstrstx May 2020 #13
Nope, it doesn't. phylny May 2020 #15
And viral load is influenced by many factors, like mask wearing and social distancing. Blue_true May 2020 #45
I'm not sure if you read the article. If you had, phylny Jun 2020 #55
"The new coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal" Rstrstx Jun 2020 #59
Ok to be fair, I ran what the doctor actually said in Italian through google translate Rstrstx Jun 2020 #61
I must have misunderstood your first point phylny Jun 2020 #64
Another poster wrote that Rstrstx Jun 2020 #66
I am where you appear to be on this. nt Blue_true May 2020 #44
I hope so. Ace Rothstein May 2020 #14
We have had a rise in cases - I think 20 more than two weeks ago (we live in a rural area) and phylny May 2020 #24
Let them publish their conclusion with data for peer review. Otherwise their claim is suspect. Raven123 May 2020 #16
I agree. phylny May 2020 #21
I wouldn't be BGBD May 2020 #25
I just briefly read (maybe even here) phylny May 2020 #26
The 1918 flu mutated into a much more deadly strain in the second wave. Nt Meowmee Jun 2020 #58
Lets not count our chickens before they hatch. LisaL May 2020 #28
There are two paths the virus can take. Blue_true May 2020 #46
That's one theory BGBD May 2020 #51
What exactly is this supposed to be saying? coti May 2020 #29
My read and understanding phylny May 2020 #31
This may be the effect of face masks spinbaby May 2020 #35
Same issue here. phylny May 2020 #38
+1, if the virus hasn't mutated I don't care for amount of viral load if they haven't tested uponit7771 May 2020 #40
Well, then, I guess we'll all be fine! cwydro May 2020 #36
Me too! phylny May 2020 #37
Interesting but I'm skeptical. StarryNite May 2020 #39
Natural selection at work. roamer65 May 2020 #47
Wow, that's interesting (and sad). phylny May 2020 #49
That all depends on the virus. roamer65 Jun 2020 #52
Well, I don't know what's going on in Italy, LisaL May 2020 #50
Yes, we do OhioChick Jun 2020 #53
Our cases in my small country are rising as well. phylny Jun 2020 #56
He is Berlusconi's doctor, fwiw. nt greyl Jun 2020 #57
I hope so! 🤞 Raine Jun 2020 #60
That kind of study would be done by geneticists NickB79 Jun 2020 #63
Coronaviruses commonly and easily recombine with each other McCamy Taylor Jun 2020 #67
Interesting reading! phylny Jun 2020 #68
Maybe that's what's happening. backscatter712 Jun 2020 #69
Less viral load because people are distancing and wearing masks? Doremus Jun 2020 #70
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