My thoughts on the Kentucky primary Amy McGrath vs Charles Booker

[Awsi Dooger]

51. Registered voters means absolutely nothing compared to self-identified ideology

Percentages of liberals and conservatives dictate the outcomes. That is always the key variable in a general election, along with national slant of the given cycle.

This is incredibly simple: We should never nominate the more progressive candidate if the electorate is going to hold 38% or more conservatives. If we followed that basic guideline we wouldn't make incomparably moronic choices like Andrew Gillum over Gwen Graham in Florida. Systems win. Tunnel vision subjectivity loses.

Kentucky will be well over 40% self-identified conservatives in November.

That's also why the numbers of blacks in a given state doesn't really matter. I see posters here raving about the number of blacks in South Carolina or Alabama or Mississippi and insisting they should be blue states. Meanwhile they are missing the mathematical point entirely. Among the white voters in those states they are very few moderates. The whites are hard core unbending conservatives. That's why those states are not up for grabs.

This Kentucky mistake wouldn't be as bad as Florida because it is not substituting victory for defeat. Neither one of them is going to defeat Mitch McConnell. But it would make for a more lopsided defeat and basically give the progressive wing continuing stupid notion that it should continue participating in areas where it has no idea what it is doing.