The Saturday Debate (Narrow Winner Newt. Big Loser Perry.) [View all]

[cthulu2016]

Huntsman was excellent and probably boosted his support in New Hampshire from 10% all the way up to... about 10%

Paul was pretty good. One of his better performances, by the standards of those who like Paul in the first place. If the tea-party was a real phenomenon, rather than an astro-turf mob of the usual bible-thumpers, it would be puzzling why Paul wouldn't get all their support. But the tea-party was always about vanilla republicanism and will not tolerate a rebel. (Oh the irony.) I'd say Paul hitting 20% in NH is a one in three shot.

Perry finshed his campaign. Again. Even the republicans probably don't want to re-invade Iraq. Dead man walking but too dumb to know it. His value as a stalking horse for Romney in SC (see: Fred Thompson 2008) is probably minimal. Dude will finish 5th in SC. (And dead last in NH)

Gingrich was kind of nasty without landing shit on the opposition. His ready eloquence in calling Obama a socialist was, however, notable on a stage full of men who cannot form a sentence and probably helped him. I suspect he pulled himself up close to rough parity with Santorum in NH. (The take-down of him as a Chickenhawk might have hurt if he were seeking the nomination of a party that didn't love chickenhawks.)

Santorum was awful, except in terms of expectations. He talked about president stuff and promised to demolish Iran. He gave the Xtian right no room for pause, by their minimal standards. Said he would not outlaw contraception, which is a positive for folks who were not already on the Santorumentum train. On balance, I'd say he helped himself slighty and is on equal footing with Paul and Gingrich in NH.

Romney really came off as a dork but the moderators didn't seem to mind much. Had a "Leave Britany alone!!11!" audience moment when mean ole' Stephanopolus pressed him to answer a very simple and not too controversial question. (That he dodged in stunningly transparent fashion.) This suggested that they know they're stuck with the guy. He did something clever, but probably accidental—he deferred to Paul as the Constitutionalist, slyly implying that he in any way agreed with Paul about the Constitution. (There is no upside for Romeny to be mean to Paul.) Romney sucked but will still pull 40% in NH.

Winners: Gingrich, Santorum, Paul

Losers: Perry, Romney