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Showing Original Post only (View all)How can a disease with a 1% mortality rate shut down the U.S? Answered by Franklin Veaux: [View all]
There are two problems with this question.
The US has a population of 328,200,000. If one percent of the population dies, thats 3,282,000 people dead.
Three million people dead would monkey wrench the economy no matter what. That more than doubles the number of annual deaths all at once.
The second bit is people keep talking about deaths. Deaths, deaths, deaths. Only one percent die! Just one percent! One is a small number! No big deal, right?
What about the people who survive?
For every one person who dies:
So now all of a sudden, that but its only 1% fatal! becomes:
That's the thing that the folks who keep going on about only 1% dead, whats the big deal? dont get.
The choice is not ruin the economy to save 1%. If we reopen the economy, it will be destroyed anyway. The US economy cannot survive everyone getting COVID-19.
1. It neglects the law of large numbers; and
2. It assumes that one of two things happen: you die or youre 100% fine.
The US has a population of 328,200,000. If one percent of the population dies, thats 3,282,000 people dead.
Three million people dead would monkey wrench the economy no matter what. That more than doubles the number of annual deaths all at once.
The second bit is people keep talking about deaths. Deaths, deaths, deaths. Only one percent die! Just one percent! One is a small number! No big deal, right?
What about the people who survive?
For every one person who dies:
-19 more require hospitalization.
-18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives.
-10 will have permanent lung damage.
-3 will have strokes.
-2 will have neurological damage that leads to chronic weakness and loss of coordination.
-2 will have neurological damage that leads to loss of cognitive function.
So now all of a sudden, that but its only 1% fatal! becomes:
-3,282,000 people dead.
-62,358,000 hospitalized.
-59,076,000 people with permanent heart damage.
-32,820,000 people with permanent lung damage.
-9,846,000 people with strokes.
-6,564,000 people with muscle weakness.
-6,564,000 people with loss of cognitive function.
That's the thing that the folks who keep going on about only 1% dead, whats the big deal? dont get.
The choice is not ruin the economy to save 1%. If we reopen the economy, it will be destroyed anyway. The US economy cannot survive everyone getting COVID-19.
The full post and sources are included here:
https://www.quora.com/How-can-a-disease-with-1-mortality-shut-down-the-United-States/answer/Franklin-Veaux
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How can a disease with a 1% mortality rate shut down the U.S? Answered by Franklin Veaux: [View all]
ehrnst
Jul 2020
OP
Shocking. Quick estimate of victims with permanent disabilities is staggering.
empedocles
Jul 2020
#6
Also, I'd assume that the rate will be higher if the hospitals become inundated,
Crunchy Frog
Jul 2020
#16
...on top of that, people will also die from other conditions who otherwise wouldn't.
subterranean
Jul 2020
#83
I'd like to see primary sources rather than some "quora" editor. I know he cites a few articles but
erronis
Jul 2020
#20
Thats long term, just had a friend released from the hospital after 3 mos...
Historic NY
Jul 2020
#34
It's 4.2% of discovered cases. Actual cases may be 5 to 10 greater in number, hence about 1%. . . nt
Bernardo de La Paz
Jul 2020
#61
Not really. That's based on confirmed cases by testing. Many more infected who are never tested.
Hoyt
Jul 2020
#50
I see your point. But your assumption, unless I read it wrong, in which case I apologize
GulfCoast66
Jul 2020
#74
As a sample size grow larger, statistic taken from it more match a full population.
Blue_true
Jul 2020
#106
Hong Kong, one of the countries in the world with the best control of the virus
Blue_true
Jul 2020
#112
Every position that a person can take on this depends upon a lot of supposition,
Blue_true
Jul 2020
#72
So as of right now there are 137,765 known deaths in the US caused by Trump's incompetence
krispos42
Jul 2020
#42
And yet we're currently being led by a guy who can't spell or understand basic math.
Initech
Jul 2020
#47
This is wrong. It assumes everyone will get it, it will be less tha 50%. Need to cut these estimates
Dream Girl
Jul 2020
#102
Very useful information. A guy I work with is one of those "only 1% die" people, and
liberalla
Jul 2020
#53
The info is to counter "herd immunity" advocates who say let everyone get it and let 1% die. . . .nt
Bernardo de La Paz
Jul 2020
#62
The thing is, 1% is a hypothetical. The current death total is 4% of the confirmed total.
ancianita
Jul 2020
#97