General Discussion

Hoyt

(54,770 posts)

12. Basically agree, but with a few quibbles or slight bit of optimism.

Sun Jul 12, 2020, 04:14 PM

Jul 2020

It assumes everyone is going to get it and no effective treatments are developed.

If that is true, about all any government can do is flatten the curve so that health system is not totally overwhelmed and effective treatments can be developed.

Could probably argue the hospitalizations are high based upon evidence to date. Also suspect those with permanent health issues are not additive, in that most of the unfortunate people will have heart, lung, AND other conditions.

In any event, it’s devastating. But, I think we’ll survive, although with drastic change.

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How can a disease with a 1% mortality rate shut down the U.S? Answered by Franklin Veaux: [View all] ehrnst Jul 2020 OP

Bookmarking. Nevilledog Jul 2020 #1

K&R with thanks uppityperson Jul 2020 #2

Amazing and frightening information bottomofthehill Jul 2020 #3

Shocking. Quick estimate of victims with permanent disabilities is staggering. empedocles Jul 2020 #6

well thought out dem4decades Jul 2020 #4

Kick and recommend. bronxiteforever Jul 2020 #5

Holy COW Leghorn21 Jul 2020 #7

Great. Bookmarking as well. SoonerPride Jul 2020 #8

In other words VA_Jill Jul 2020 #9

KNR and bokmarking niyad Jul 2020 #10

And all those that survive, with damage will... sheshe2 Jul 2020 #11

That is after many life disabled. nt Blue_true Jul 2020 #68

Basically agree, but with a few quibbles or slight bit of optimism. Hoyt Jul 2020 #12

Yes, they calculations are overstated by a factor of two at a minimum. Dream Girl Jul 2020 #101

Great post and bookmarked yonder Jul 2020 #13

1% is a horrifically high death rate DBoon Jul 2020 #14

Exactly, and it's so preventable too. Buckeye_Democrat Jul 2020 #22

K&R for visibility. nt tblue37 Jul 2020 #15

Also, I'd assume that the rate will be higher if the hospitals become inundated, Crunchy Frog Jul 2020 #16

That's what happened in Wuhan and Italy NickB79 Jul 2020 #35

...on top of that, people will also die from other conditions who otherwise wouldn't. subterranean Jul 2020 #83

+1, uponit7771 Jul 2020 #89

How many Rebl2 Jul 2020 #17

Yes, and that includes everyone who wasn't tested FakeNoose Jul 2020 #95

Venn diagram best case central scrutinizer Jul 2020 #18

Yes that is the way to think about it bucolic_frolic Jul 2020 #19

It will be like the survivors of polio or the thalidomide children csziggy Jul 2020 #32

Except now Covid becomes a pre-existing condition.... Heartstrings Jul 2020 #80

Yes, some suffered neurological damage for decades DBoon Jul 2020 #107

I'd like to see primary sources rather than some "quora" editor. I know he cites a few articles but erronis Jul 2020 #20

The sources are included at the link. (nt) ehrnst Jul 2020 #44

"19 more require hospitalization" Buckeye_Democrat Jul 2020 #21

Thats long term, just had a friend released from the hospital after 3 mos... Historic NY Jul 2020 #34

You'll never see me downplay this pandemic. Buckeye_Democrat Jul 2020 #36

He was the head of the entire county's fire services.. Historic NY Jul 2020 #37

Very sad. Buckeye_Democrat Jul 2020 #38

Regardless of the robustness of these numbers, the premise is sound. patphil Jul 2020 #23

Great post malaise Jul 2020 #24

Isn't the mortality rate closer to 4 or 5 percent? groundloop Jul 2020 #25

I'd look at the "cases that had an outcome" instead. Buckeye_Democrat Jul 2020 #29

That's because the number of actual infections Crunchy Frog Jul 2020 #40

no obamanut2012 Jul 2020 #49

It's 4.2% of discovered cases. Actual cases may be 5 to 10 greater in number, hence about 1%. . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Jul 2020 #61

Per WHO 20% of afflicted require hospitalization RVN VET71 Jul 2020 #104

I have tried to explain that countless times. Pacifist Patriot Jul 2020 #26

Ya it's not the flu amuse bouche Jul 2020 #27

That's not what the 1% mortality rate means. TheRickles Jul 2020 #28

Good point Kitchari Jul 2020 #51

Massachusetts did a pretty aggressive lockdown, based upon news reports. Blue_true Jul 2020 #70

Until there's a vaccine, up to 100% of us could catch it dickthegrouch Jul 2020 #75

+100000 Celerity Jul 2020 #81

Thank you for this. a la izquierda Jul 2020 #90

80% is probably too high Celerity Jul 2020 #103

The mortality rate is higher NewEnglandAutumn Jul 2020 #30

Not really. That's based on confirmed cases by testing. Many more infected who are never tested. Hoyt Jul 2020 #50

You can't prove your last statement. Blue_true Jul 2020 #71

The consensus among experts is that 10 to 20 times more people have been infected Hoyt Jul 2020 #73

I see your point. But your assumption, unless I read it wrong, in which case I apologize GulfCoast66 Jul 2020 #74

We have some empirical data that inadvertently got produced. Blue_true Jul 2020 #78

Your stats are highly inflated TheRickles Jul 2020 #92

As a sample size grow larger, statistic taken from it more match a full population. Blue_true Jul 2020 #106

An assessment by Stanford epidemiologist Dr. John Ioannidis TheRickles Jul 2020 #110

Others put it higher. Believe what you want to believe. nt Blue_true Jul 2020 #111

Hong Kong, one of the countries in the world with the best control of the virus Blue_true Jul 2020 #112

Somewhere Right Here At DU... ProfessorGAC Jul 2020 #31

A very grim but accurate statement, Professor peggysue2 Jul 2020 #59

Every position that a person can take on this depends upon a lot of supposition, Blue_true Jul 2020 #72

Math. paleotn Jul 2020 #33

Si RiF Jul 2020 #39

Humanism, decency, logic, and math.. Doesn't work on deplorables. EqualityNow Jul 2020 #41

That is not how they see things...entirely. Moostache Jul 2020 #56

So as of right now there are 137,765 known deaths in the US caused by Trump's incompetence krispos42 Jul 2020 #42

And many Democrats were prevented from voting in those states. (nt) ehrnst Jul 2020 #45

Trump Virus RicROC Jul 2020 #76

Recommend BadgerMom Jul 2020 #43

I am sharing this to Facebook WonderGrunion Jul 2020 #46

And yet we're currently being led by a guy who can't spell or understand basic math. Initech Jul 2020 #47

Understand exponential math? irilli_hadenoff Jul 2020 #84

I am also on Quora. warmfeet Jul 2020 #48

This is wrong. It assumes everyone will get it, it will be less tha 50%. Need to cut these estimates Dream Girl Jul 2020 #102

When I hear people say that masks do nothing to prevent the spread Mr.Bill Jul 2020 #52

Very useful information. A guy I work with is one of those "only 1% die" people, and liberalla Jul 2020 #53

K & R N/T w0nderer Jul 2020 #54

Hold on. qwlauren35 Jul 2020 #55

The info is to counter "herd immunity" advocates who say let everyone get it and let 1% die. . . .nt Bernardo de La Paz Jul 2020 #62

What is the mortality rate? Jillgirl Jul 2020 #57

Realize also that there are actually two death rates irilli_hadenoff Jul 2020 #85

Even more complicated is that there are critically ill who recover live love laugh Jul 2020 #86

Message auto-removed Name removed Jul 2020 #93

Investigate Excess Deaths Jillgirl Jul 2020 #98

He doesn't understand the theorem he cited in #1. Mosby Jul 2020 #58

superb distillation and extrapolation! thank you bringthePaine Jul 2020 #60

Mortality rate equals nr deaths/total cases DeminPennswoods Jul 2020 #63

This is the best explanation of what's going on with covid19 that I've seen Poiuyt Jul 2020 #64

KR& Bookmarking. ms liberty Jul 2020 #65

Superb Cetacea Jul 2020 #66

They won't understand unless it's $ modrepub Jul 2020 #67

Whatever the actual mortality rate is, the fact is that it is lower than Collimator Jul 2020 #69

Truth! chwaliszewski Jul 2020 #77

Quora has some fascinatingly correct information.... Heartstrings Jul 2020 #79

One county here in NM has been as high as 7.5% dead Warpy Jul 2020 #82

Bookmarked.. TY for some harsh reality, ehrsnt! Cha Jul 2020 #87

Thank you. Many people are being so cavalier about this disease. Dark n Stormy Knight Jul 2020 #88

And who is this guy exactly? a la izquierda Jul 2020 #91

Exactly right. n/t TheRickles Jul 2020 #99

+1 chia Jul 2020 #105

Those are terrifying numbers. BComplex Jul 2020 #94

Where does 1% come from? JoeDuck Jul 2020 #96

The thing is, 1% is a hypothetical. The current death total is 4% of the confirmed total. ancianita Jul 2020 #97

Dear God... calimary Jul 2020 #100

That is what I said at the very beginning. Caliman73 Jul 2020 #108

And if we 'open up' and overrun the hospitals, the mortality rate will be even higher. nilram Jul 2020 #109