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Cetacea

(7,367 posts)

66. Superb

Reply to ehrnst (Original post)

Sun Jul 12, 2020, 09:05 PM

Jul 2020

Thank you

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How can a disease with a 1% mortality rate shut down the U.S? Answered by Franklin Veaux: [View all] ehrnst Jul 2020 OP

Bookmarking. Nevilledog Jul 2020 #1

K&R with thanks uppityperson Jul 2020 #2

Amazing and frightening information bottomofthehill Jul 2020 #3

Shocking. Quick estimate of victims with permanent disabilities is staggering. empedocles Jul 2020 #6

well thought out dem4decades Jul 2020 #4

Kick and recommend. bronxiteforever Jul 2020 #5

Holy COW Leghorn21 Jul 2020 #7

Great. Bookmarking as well. SoonerPride Jul 2020 #8

In other words VA_Jill Jul 2020 #9

KNR and bokmarking niyad Jul 2020 #10

And all those that survive, with damage will... sheshe2 Jul 2020 #11

That is after many life disabled. nt Blue_true Jul 2020 #68

Basically agree, but with a few quibbles or slight bit of optimism. Hoyt Jul 2020 #12

Yes, they calculations are overstated by a factor of two at a minimum. Dream Girl Jul 2020 #101

Great post and bookmarked yonder Jul 2020 #13

1% is a horrifically high death rate DBoon Jul 2020 #14

Exactly, and it's so preventable too. Buckeye_Democrat Jul 2020 #22

K&R for visibility. nt tblue37 Jul 2020 #15

Also, I'd assume that the rate will be higher if the hospitals become inundated, Crunchy Frog Jul 2020 #16

That's what happened in Wuhan and Italy NickB79 Jul 2020 #35

...on top of that, people will also die from other conditions who otherwise wouldn't. subterranean Jul 2020 #83

+1, uponit7771 Jul 2020 #89

How many Rebl2 Jul 2020 #17

Yes, and that includes everyone who wasn't tested FakeNoose Jul 2020 #95

Venn diagram best case central scrutinizer Jul 2020 #18

Yes that is the way to think about it bucolic_frolic Jul 2020 #19

It will be like the survivors of polio or the thalidomide children csziggy Jul 2020 #32

Except now Covid becomes a pre-existing condition.... Heartstrings Jul 2020 #80

Yes, some suffered neurological damage for decades DBoon Jul 2020 #107

I'd like to see primary sources rather than some "quora" editor. I know he cites a few articles but erronis Jul 2020 #20

The sources are included at the link. (nt) ehrnst Jul 2020 #44

"19 more require hospitalization" Buckeye_Democrat Jul 2020 #21

Thats long term, just had a friend released from the hospital after 3 mos... Historic NY Jul 2020 #34

You'll never see me downplay this pandemic. Buckeye_Democrat Jul 2020 #36

He was the head of the entire county's fire services.. Historic NY Jul 2020 #37

Very sad. Buckeye_Democrat Jul 2020 #38

Regardless of the robustness of these numbers, the premise is sound. patphil Jul 2020 #23

Great post malaise Jul 2020 #24

Isn't the mortality rate closer to 4 or 5 percent? groundloop Jul 2020 #25

I'd look at the "cases that had an outcome" instead. Buckeye_Democrat Jul 2020 #29

That's because the number of actual infections Crunchy Frog Jul 2020 #40

no obamanut2012 Jul 2020 #49

It's 4.2% of discovered cases. Actual cases may be 5 to 10 greater in number, hence about 1%. . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Jul 2020 #61

Per WHO 20% of afflicted require hospitalization RVN VET71 Jul 2020 #104

I have tried to explain that countless times. Pacifist Patriot Jul 2020 #26

Ya it's not the flu amuse bouche Jul 2020 #27

That's not what the 1% mortality rate means. TheRickles Jul 2020 #28

Good point Kitchari Jul 2020 #51

Massachusetts did a pretty aggressive lockdown, based upon news reports. Blue_true Jul 2020 #70

Until there's a vaccine, up to 100% of us could catch it dickthegrouch Jul 2020 #75

+100000 Celerity Jul 2020 #81

Thank you for this. a la izquierda Jul 2020 #90

80% is probably too high Celerity Jul 2020 #103

The mortality rate is higher NewEnglandAutumn Jul 2020 #30

Not really. That's based on confirmed cases by testing. Many more infected who are never tested. Hoyt Jul 2020 #50

You can't prove your last statement. Blue_true Jul 2020 #71

The consensus among experts is that 10 to 20 times more people have been infected Hoyt Jul 2020 #73

I see your point. But your assumption, unless I read it wrong, in which case I apologize GulfCoast66 Jul 2020 #74

We have some empirical data that inadvertently got produced. Blue_true Jul 2020 #78

Your stats are highly inflated TheRickles Jul 2020 #92

As a sample size grow larger, statistic taken from it more match a full population. Blue_true Jul 2020 #106

An assessment by Stanford epidemiologist Dr. John Ioannidis TheRickles Jul 2020 #110

Others put it higher. Believe what you want to believe. nt Blue_true Jul 2020 #111

Hong Kong, one of the countries in the world with the best control of the virus Blue_true Jul 2020 #112

Somewhere Right Here At DU... ProfessorGAC Jul 2020 #31

A very grim but accurate statement, Professor peggysue2 Jul 2020 #59

Every position that a person can take on this depends upon a lot of supposition, Blue_true Jul 2020 #72

Math. paleotn Jul 2020 #33

Si RiF Jul 2020 #39

Humanism, decency, logic, and math.. Doesn't work on deplorables. EqualityNow Jul 2020 #41

That is not how they see things...entirely. Moostache Jul 2020 #56

So as of right now there are 137,765 known deaths in the US caused by Trump's incompetence krispos42 Jul 2020 #42

And many Democrats were prevented from voting in those states. (nt) ehrnst Jul 2020 #45

Trump Virus RicROC Jul 2020 #76

Recommend BadgerMom Jul 2020 #43

I am sharing this to Facebook WonderGrunion Jul 2020 #46

And yet we're currently being led by a guy who can't spell or understand basic math. Initech Jul 2020 #47

Understand exponential math? irilli_hadenoff Jul 2020 #84

I am also on Quora. warmfeet Jul 2020 #48

This is wrong. It assumes everyone will get it, it will be less tha 50%. Need to cut these estimates Dream Girl Jul 2020 #102

When I hear people say that masks do nothing to prevent the spread Mr.Bill Jul 2020 #52

Very useful information. A guy I work with is one of those "only 1% die" people, and liberalla Jul 2020 #53

K & R N/T w0nderer Jul 2020 #54

Hold on. qwlauren35 Jul 2020 #55

The info is to counter "herd immunity" advocates who say let everyone get it and let 1% die. . . .nt Bernardo de La Paz Jul 2020 #62

What is the mortality rate? Jillgirl Jul 2020 #57

Realize also that there are actually two death rates irilli_hadenoff Jul 2020 #85

Even more complicated is that there are critically ill who recover live love laugh Jul 2020 #86

Message auto-removed Name removed Jul 2020 #93

Investigate Excess Deaths Jillgirl Jul 2020 #98

He doesn't understand the theorem he cited in #1. Mosby Jul 2020 #58

superb distillation and extrapolation! thank you bringthePaine Jul 2020 #60

Mortality rate equals nr deaths/total cases DeminPennswoods Jul 2020 #63

This is the best explanation of what's going on with covid19 that I've seen Poiuyt Jul 2020 #64

KR& Bookmarking. ms liberty Jul 2020 #65

Superb Cetacea Jul 2020 #66

They won't understand unless it's $ modrepub Jul 2020 #67

Whatever the actual mortality rate is, the fact is that it is lower than Collimator Jul 2020 #69

Truth! chwaliszewski Jul 2020 #77

Quora has some fascinatingly correct information.... Heartstrings Jul 2020 #79

One county here in NM has been as high as 7.5% dead Warpy Jul 2020 #82

Bookmarked.. TY for some harsh reality, ehrsnt! Cha Jul 2020 #87

Thank you. Many people are being so cavalier about this disease. Dark n Stormy Knight Jul 2020 #88

And who is this guy exactly? a la izquierda Jul 2020 #91

Exactly right. n/t TheRickles Jul 2020 #99

+1 chia Jul 2020 #105

Those are terrifying numbers. BComplex Jul 2020 #94

Where does 1% come from? JoeDuck Jul 2020 #96

The thing is, 1% is a hypothetical. The current death total is 4% of the confirmed total. ancianita Jul 2020 #97

Dear God... calimary Jul 2020 #100

That is what I said at the very beginning. Caliman73 Jul 2020 #108

And if we 'open up' and overrun the hospitals, the mortality rate will be even higher. nilram Jul 2020 #109